A new poll suggests independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s participation in the 2024 election could notably influence the race between incumbent President Biden and President Trump, particularly in crucial swing states.

The survey, conducted by The Hill and Emerson University, highlights that in a direct contest between Messrs. Biden and Trump, the latter holds an advantage across seven pivotal states — Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada. 

Specifically, Mr. Trump is leading by a margin of 1 to 5 percentage points in these states, which are deemed critical for securing the presidential victory this November.

However, the inclusion of Mr. Kennedy as a candidate appears to amplify Mr. Trump’s lead in several of these states. For instance, in Georgia, the introduction of Mr. Kennedy into the race extends Mr. Trump’s advantage to 6 points.

Similar trends emerge in other states, with Mr. Trump benefiting from increased leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada when Mr. Kennedy is considered an option. The leads in Arizona and Michigan, though, show no significant change with Mr. Kennedy’s candidacy.

The insights underscore the potential strategic implications of Mr. Kennedy’s run on the election’s outcome, particularly how it could sway voter preferences in key battleground states. The survey results illuminate the complexity of this electoral cycle, emphasizing the influence individual candidates can have in shaping the broader political landscape.

In recent days, Mr. Trump has become noticeably annoyed by Mr. Kennedy’s run. 

“RFK Jr. is a Democrat ‘Plant,’ a Radical Left Liberal who’s been put in place in order to help Crooked Joe Biden, the Worst President in the History of the United States, get Re-Elected,” he wrote in a recent Truth Social post. “A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him.”