War in Ukraine Turns Out To Be the ‘Best Thing That Could Ever Happen to Kim Jong-Un’

The North Korean tyrant is looking to expand its weapons sales beyond Russia.

Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin pool via AP
President Putin and North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, at the Vostochny cosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region of Russia, September 13, 2023. Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin pool via AP

The war in Ukraine is giving North Korea the resources it needs to recover from perpetual hunger, poverty, and economic distress with the support of its two greatest neighbors, Russia and China. That’s the impression of leading North Korea analysts as the Hermit Marxists ship arms and ammunition for Russ forces in Ukraine — and eye selling arms on global markets, too.

“The war in Ukraine is the best thing that could ever happen to Kim Jong-un,” allows the long-time Korea analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Victor Cha. He made the remark while talking at a CSIS panel. “If the Russians are subsidizing food, fuel and military technology for Kim’s toys, what can we do?”

One answer one often hears in Free Korea is that the South should develop its own nuclear weapons. It is something its physicists and engineers could do quite quickly after years of research and development at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute focused mainly on nuclear energy for the South’s booming industries. Mr. Cha has put out a study on this head.

 “The main reason South Korea’s strategic elites do not favor nuclearization is the consequences in terms of international condemnation, reputational costs, and sanctions,” he wrote. He acknowledges  the new North Korean relationship with Russia lies  behind frequent discussion and speculation on the possibility of the South competing with the North for nuclear supremacy.

The issue assumed urgency this week with the dissolution of a UN panel charged with monitoring compliance with sanctions. The panel was dissolved after Russia vetoed a Security Council resolution renewing its mandate. “North Korea now has complete impunity,” says a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst.

While North Korea pours armaments into Russia, including missiles and artillery shells, the White House says Russia is shipping record amounts of refined petroleum into the North to fuel its depleted economy. “Russia could sustain these shipments indefinitely,” said the White House national security spokesman,  John Kirby.

Ms. Terry said North Korea wants much more from Russia besides food and oil. “They want technological and other forms of assistance,” she said, appearing with Mr. Cha on the CSIS panel.  “The big prize for Kim Jong-un would be advanced weaponry.” The relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang, moreover, comes with a bonus.

“North Korth also gets to test its weapons in Ukraine,” said Ms. Terry, noting that Russia might have provided North Korea with the assistance for its launch of a satellite after two failures. Now “it’s possible hypersonic missiles could be sent to Ukraine.” On the basis of that experience, she went on, “Kim Jong-un could expand sales not only to Russia but to other countries.”

But what about the historic hostility between Russia and China that broke into the open during the Cold War with revelations of “the Sino-Soviet dispute” between Mao and Stalin? Are those two neighbors really on such great terms now while supporting North Korea? “I’m not hopeful that China is going to help us,” said Ms. Terry.

Sure, “the improved relationship between Russia and North Korea has made the Chinese upset,” said Mr. Cha, but don’t think that’s going to hurt North Korea. “At the same time, the Chinese are more attentive to Kim,” he said, predicting President Xi would welcome Mr. Kim for their first summit since the failure of Mr. Kim’s second summit with President Trump at Hanoi.


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