The Democrats' Message: If You've Had Enough, Then Vote the GOP Out

WASHINGTON — Democrats once figured they would have to come up with detailed and thoughtful arguments to beat the Republicans on November 7. Now, the party's message is so simple that it fits on a bumper sticker: "Had enough? Vote Democratic."

That exhortation is what Democratic strategists say is their party's key to victory: Making the election a referendum on President Bush, his supporters, and the war in Iraq, rather than about local concerns and individual races between candidates.

"This is one of those elections, you could run a refrigerator against a Republican incumbent and the refrigerator ought to win," said Chris Lehane, a Democratic consultant who worked in President Clinton's White House. "By definition, this is a nationalized election. There is no way around it."

Campaigns where national instead of local issues dominate are the exception, not the rule, in American midterm elections. It happened in 1974, when Democrats made big gains after the Watergate scandal forced President Nixon to resign. In 1994, Republicans took advantage of voter disenchantment with the Democratic congressional status quo and Mr. Clinton's stormy first two years in office: They won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years and a majority in the Senate for the first time in eight years.

The Republicans that year offered a detailed plan for change through a "Contract with America,"a multi-point pledge to overhaul Congress and introduce legislation covering issues from taxes to term limits in their first 100 days of control. Today's Democrats aren't offering that kind of detailed agenda. Even some Republicans think specifics might no longer be needed.

"It is easier to nationalize an election in an era of 24-hour cable news coverage and Internet Web logs than it was at an earlier time," a Republican pollster, Whitfield Ayres, said. "While candidates may be running on issues of importance to local districts, there is still a conversation on national issues occurring on cable and on the Internet."

A Republican consultant who worked in the presidential campaigns of Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes, Greg Mueller, said the party is being hurt by a belief that it may be crushed in the elections — a message being spread by the new media.

"There is the perception, being talked about everywhere, that Democrats are going to win the House by 25 to 30 seats," Mr. Mueller said. "You listen to the talk shows, the media, the blogosphere, and it is pretty much a done deal, and nobody has cast a vote yet! I admit there are some trends that favor Democrats in this election, but there is no way they will win 25–30 seats."

Mr. Mueller said Republicans made a conscious decision in 1994 to offer a specific program to voters, and now "Democrats are just going for the protest vote without offering specifics."

While the influence of the Contract with America on the 1994 election is still a matter of debate, independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg said Democrats have the same message now that Republicans had then.

"The message is that the president's agenda and the president's performance has been a disaster, and the election becomes almost about buyer's remorse," Mr. Rothenberg said. "Even Republicans are disappointed with the Bush administration."