Burma Proves a Test For Southeast Asians

When the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations admitted Burma in July 1997, little did they know what lay ahead. They thought it would bring into the fold one of the most isolated countries in the region. A decade later, they are bleeding from their quick decision. ASEAN has not been able to rein in its pariah member.

Today's Burma, under the military junta for the past 19 years, behaves as an outsider rather than a member of the ASEAN family. Troops of the junta recently opened fire and killed peaceful demonstrators, including monks and civilians. Photos of victims were distributed via the Internet around the world.

Core ASEAN members such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore have spoken out individually against the Burmese regime. The joint statement by the ASEAN leaders issued last month in New York was unusually blunt, expressing "revulsion" against the Burmese troops' use of automatic weapons to attack the demonstrators. Before that, these ASEAN members were willing to back Burma's position.

This year, ASEAN is commemorating its 40th anniversary. The occasion calls for both soul-searching and for generating new ideas on how to enforce compliance among members. More than the members would like to admit, Burma is suddenly emerging as the group's biggest problem. Two years ago, the junta leaders told ASEAN foreign ministers that the Burmese democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi would soon be freed. She remains under house arrest.

In 2005, a former prime minister of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohamed, urged ASEAN to expel Burma. ASEAN, however, does not have any provision for punishing members who refuse to follow rules and regulations. As host of next month's ASEAN summit, Singapore is working behind closed doors to ensure that the group's reputation is intact while coping with the growing international pressure on the situation in Burma.

One of the best ways out would be to urge Burma to withdraw from all ASEAN-related activities until its domestic situation improves. Back in 2005, Burma skipped its turn at chairing ASEAN, citing domestic imperatives. Without Burma's participation, ASEAN would be able to back the efforts of the United Nations special envoy, Ibrahim Gambari. For the past decade, ASEAN has been reluctant to support the effort of the world body for fear that United Nations action would be too intrusive.

However, the global outcry over the junta's oppression of the monks is unprecedented. In a matter of seconds, the press was able to distribute photos of soldiers killing civilians throughout the world. These images sustained the world's interest in Burma, which kept alive the torch of hope within the country.

Beyond its pariah member, ASEAN has to engage both China and India, Burma's two big neighbors, which provide support to the junta. China has been quietly pressuring Burma. Its ambassador to Thailand, Zhang Jiuhuan, recently said that China is changing with the international environment, more than the press would like to acknowledge, especially on Burma. Beijing wants to maintain a "good face" when the Olympic Games come next August. Linking the situation in Burma with threats of a boycott against the games does worry China.

Then there is India's ineptitude. Despite being the world's largest democracy, India was more than willing to back the junta. In return, Delhi can count on security along its Burmese border. Motivating Indian efforts to appease the junta is a desire to best China's influence with the regime. International criticism is increasingly targeting India for its refusal to use what influence it has over the junta for the benefit of democracy.

The crackdown on the monks and demonstrators has put the Burmese crisis on the American news networks. It's been nearly 20 years since that last happened. President Bush and the first lady are determined to keep the issue at the front of the United Nations's agenda. Mrs. Bush herself has emerged as a champion of the Burmese struggle for democracy and the empowerment of women.

Together with England, France, and other Western countries, America is currently pushing for sanctions. Both China and Russia have constantly vetoed such attempts in the past. They argued that Burma's trouble is not a threat to international peace and stability. In the face of such obstinacy, the junta has little to fear from the Security Council. Western investors in oil and natural gas are not yet ready to give up their stakes inside Burma.

For the first time there is a possibility that regional and international pressure are merging. If these forces could be sustained over time then Burmese aspirations would be fulfilled. The country will be transformed into a democracy.

Mr. Chongkittavorn is the assistant group editor of the Nation in Bangkok.