Mayor Reportedly Conducting Polling, Analysis in 50 States

In what is perhaps the most concrete indicator so far that Mayor Bloomberg is planning a presidential run, the Associated Press is reporting that the mayor has been conducting extensive polling and voter analysis in all 50 states. If accurate, the scale of the polling operation is far greater than even a major party candidate could afford, demonstrating both the seriousness of Mr. Bloomberg's ambitions and some of the unprecedented advantages his wealth could grant him in a presidential contest.

While Mr. Bloomberg's participation in last weekend's nonpartisan conference in Oklahoma was overshadowed by upsets in the Democratic and Republican caucuses in Iowa and the primaries in New Hampshire, the polling report is likely to reinvigorate speculation about a possible independent candidacy from the mayor. "I think Mayor Bloomberg is trying to decide if he could scare up enough electoral votes to win the White House," the president of polling company Rasmussen Reports, Scott Rasmussen said in a phone interview. "It's a big price if you're a mere mortal and a big price tag if you're a candidate who's depending on contributions from others. I can't imagine anyone else would do it — even the Bush campaign in 2004 didn't. But Mayor Bloomberg is considering something completely unconventional and probably wants to see where he stands in all 50 states. The cost to him is relatively insignificant."

According to Mr. Rasmussen, "relatively insignificant" could be as much as $30,000 a state polled if the methods are as elaborate as the report indicates, meaning that Mr. Bloomberg may have already spent more than $1 million preparing for a run.

"To the non-plutocrats out there, that's just a dream to be able to conduct a 50-state, highly-intensive polling operation," a professor of public policy at Baruch College, Douglas Muzzio, said. "Clearly that effort is a sign that they're laying the basis for a presidential campaign."

The nature of the polling is significant as well, and demonstrates how Mr. Bloomberg's voter targeting techniques, used to great success in his mayoral races, could be applied on a nationwide scale, a feat no other candidate could likely match.

"They'll pretty soon know exactly where you live, what you drink, what you drive, what computer you own, and use the information to construct voter profiles," Mr. Muzzio said. "With unlimited resources you can build just a vast database."

Using the gathered information, the mayor could identify likely supporters and volunteers and carefully target them with personalized direct mailings and phone calls.

The mastermind of Mr. Bloomberg's previous micro-targeting efforts, Doug Schoen, who recently released a book about the potential success of a third party presidential candidate, told the AP that he is not working for Mr. Bloomberg.

"Just because he's not getting paid by him, doesn't mean he's not consulting with him," Mr. Muzzio said.