Senator Menendez — should he choose to run as an independent candidate in New Jersey’s 2024 Senate race — may toss the race to the GOP candidate, a new poll suggests. The Democrats are already fighting in states both red and blue to keep their majority, and even if Mr. Menendez were to garner a sliver of support, he could imperil Senator Schumer’s position as majority leader.

On March 21, Mr. Menendez announced he would not seek the Democratic nomination for the Senate, but left the door to an independent run open starting this summer once his criminal trial has concluded.

Should he do so, he would take a not-insignificant amount of support from the presumptive Democratic nominee, Congressman Andy Kim, in the general election. According to a poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University, Mr. Menedez would garner at least six or seven percent support from New Jerseyans in the general election. 

The poll including an independent Mr. Menendez suggests that Mr. Kim would edge out one of his potential opponents, Mayor Christine Glassner, by just six points. The same is true of another Republican candidate, real estate developer Curtis Bashaw. Without Mr. Menendez in the race, Mr. Kim bests Ms. Glassner by ten points and Mr. Bashaw by nine points. 

In another poll from Emerson College, Mr. Menendez takes nine percent of the vote in a hypothetical, three-way election matchup. The generic Democratic candidate in that polls wins 49 percent of the vote, while the generic Republicans takes 42 percent.  

“Unfortunately, the present accusations I am facing … will not allow me to have that type of dialogue and debate with political opponents that have already made it the cornerstone of their campaign,” Mr. Menendez said in a video message announcing he would not run as a Democrat. “I am hopeful that my exoneration will take place this summer and allow me to pursue my candidacy as an independent Democrat in the general election,” he added. 

Mr. Kim is all but guaranteed to be the Democratic nominee for the Senate seat. His only real opposition was the state’s first lady, Tammy Murphy, who dropped out of the race in March. 

Mr. Menendez’s own son, Congressman Rob Menendez, is also in danger of losing his elected post. His Democratic primary challenger, Hoboken mayor Ravi Bhalla, is beating him by five points in that race, according to a poll from a Democratic Super PAC, America’s Promise.