“When sorrows come they come not single spies, but in battalions.” And what a host of sorrows for Britain’s governing Conservative Party.

Prime Minister Sunak faces continuing threats from his colleagues of a non-confidence vote against his leadership. Various candidates, none of which enjoy especial favor with the electorate, stand waiting . . . plotting . . . in the wings. Other Conservatives stood down or left the party in disgust.

Take Lee Anderson MP, for instance. He won a working-class seat in 2019 as a Labour-supporter turned Tory. Viewed as a “Red Wall” electoral coup, he was named deputy party chairman. Yet he resigned this role over disappointment with Mr. Sunak’s immigration bill. 

Then, Mr. Anderson lost the party whip when he criticized the Labour leadership of favoring Islamists. Disenchanted with the direction of events, he left the government benches to sit as Reform UK’s first Commons member. Despite all, constituency support remains steady, and will only give impetus for disaffected Tories to follow his rebellious example. 

Such as former Conservative mayoral candidate for Manchester, Dan Barker. With a mere six weeks before local elections, he switched to Reform, leaving Tories scrambling for an alternative.

Prospects are grim. Sinking polls give increasing evidence of the party’s fate when the writs are dropped for the next general election. YouGov’s latest survey stands Labour at 44 percent to the Conservatives’ 19 percent. 

A surging Reform only adds salt to their wounds. YouGov puts Reform UK within striking distance of overtaking the Conservatives as the country’s second most popular party. Tories languish at 19 percent, while Reform has risen to 15 percent.

Delving into polling details, Reform already leads the Conservatives with respect to the English vote and male electors, 19 to 17 percent. Meanwhile, in the all-important industrial north — the fabled “Red Wall” of Labour votes that turned blue in the 2019 general election — Reform bests the Tories by 18 to 17 percent.

Apart from the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage may be the Tories’ greatest source of sorrows. What role will he decide to take up at Reform UK in the months leading up to the general election? One pollster puts 2 points on his return as Reform leader, certain to surpass the Conservatives in voter intentions. 

Sizing up the field, Mr Farage himself is quoted in the Express as saying, “This insurgency is far bigger than UKIP.” It reflects a fundamental truth of Brexit: the British people’s desire for self-government. The consequences of having squandered that trust, is now unfolding before the Conservatives, to their horror.

“Nations have a right to make their own laws and constitute their own magistrates,” the 17th-century English radical Algernon Sidney wrote in Discourses concerning Government. “And that such as are so constituted owe an account of their actions to those by whom, and for whom they are appointed.”

In a letter to Thomas Jefferson in September 1823, John Adams remarked that rereading the Discourses “now excites fresh admiration, . . . for the proof it brings of the bitter sufferings of the advocates of Liberty from that time to this.”

For Brexiteers, inflation, immigration, and cultural implosion are only a few of their bitter sufferings. The Conservative Government owes them an account of their actions. All recent polling indicates the reckoning will be harsh. Premier Sunak is already feeling the heat.

Should “based” Tories be turned, as Lee Anderson traded colors? Can Reform UK capitalize on Conservative losses to win seats for its own candidates? As it stands with first-past-the-post elections, Reform may not return any MPs at all. At best, the party will be fortunate to retain the seats of any Tories who defect.

Yet, despite the Tory Government’s anticipated public drubbing, it is short-sighted to imagine that the liberty ideal can be realized without them. The Conservative organization is strong, and a Brexit rump in parliament will serve as a beachhead.

Regardless, political seas now swell in Reform’s favor. It has the upper hand, and should be ruthless with Tories in assessing their mutual strengths for short- and long-term advantage. To paraphrase Edmund Burke, Brexiteers must “associate, else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”

Everything suggests that Nigel Farage is that man to lead Reform. His integrity in the popular estimation is a potent asset. If Labour gains are to be kept to a minimum, no time must be lost in united action with Conservative allies. 

The question of the hour is, whether a Tory leader can be found, sincere in Brexit bona fides, willing to buck entrenched partisan interests, and fight alongside Mr. Farage?

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