If the Canadian federal elections were held today, the Conservatives would beat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals by 18 points. That’s the political shake-up predicted by a new survey of more than 3,500 Canadians conducted in March by Abacus Data.

Forty-one percent of committed voters would vote for the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, while 23 percent would prefer the Liberal Party, the survey discloses. Fifty-eight percent of voters had a negative impression of Trudeau and only 24 percent had a positive view. One in four voters say that Canada was headed in the right direction. 

Not unlike President Biden, Mr. Trudeau and his Liberal Party have long been struggling in the polls amid soaring inflation, interest rates, housing costs. The survey shows that 61 percent of voters thought Mr. Trudeau was focused on the wrong priorities, 48 percent saw him as ineffective, and 53 percent thought he was not transparent about his actions.

“In evaluating the Trudeau government, Canadians expressed concerns about its focus and effectiveness, with a majority viewing the government as distracted, focused on the wrong priorities, and closed,” Abacus Data’s chief executive, David Coletto, said in a statement. “These perceptions are closely tied to vote intention, suggesting any path back to competitiveness for the Liberals will require it to address these public perceptions.”

The polling is a far cry from the gleaming spotlight Mr. Trudeau enjoyed during the early days of his leadership. A Nanos Research poll in 2016 found that 73 percent of respondents agreed that Mr. Trudeau had the qualities of a good political leader. Yet data from the Angus Reid Institute shows that since the 1970s, nearly all Prime Ministers had a higher percentage of Canadians saying they disapproved of them than those who said they approved. 

The next Canadian federal election is set to take place in October of 2025. Fewer Canadians are considering voting for the Liberal Party than at almost any point since the Liberal Party was elected with Mr. Trudeau at its helm, according to the latest data by Nanos. Between 50 and 60 percent of respondents said they would consider voting Liberal in the lead-up to the 2015 election when former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative party was in power — a figure that has since fallen to 36.2 percent. 

Members of Mr. Trudeau’s own party seem to be turning against him. A long-time Liberal in Canada, Senator Downe, said in November that “many members of the caucus” were concerned about Mr. Trudeau’s downward spiral in popularity and proposed that he consider stepping down to make room for another liberal party leader.