Domenici Adds to GOP's Woes in West
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 9 Mar 2007 at 1:26 PM
updated Thu, 8 Mar 2007 at 2:25 PM
The growing U.S. attorneys scandal, where eight former U.S. attorneys are claiming that resisting political pressure to go after Democrats led to their dismissals, is not just a problem for the Republican Party at the national level, adding to President Bush's headaches and hurting the party's image. It also adds to the Republican Party's setbacks out West, where it has a number of Senate and House seats up for grabs in 2008 — in political territory that is increasingly unfavorable to Republicans.
Particularly worth watching as the scandal unfolds is whether Senator Domenici of New Mexico, a Republican, is forced to retire or is weakened so much politically that a serious Democratic challenger takes the stage when Mr. Domenici's seat is up in 2008.
I just got finished chatting with an expert on New Mexico politics, and the prospect isn't so distant.
Mr. Domenici was reelected to his Senate seat comfortably in 2002. But at the age of 74, with health problems, and with the U.S. attorneys scandal hanging over his head, he is a prime candidate for retirement.
According to Joe Monahan, author of the New Mexico Politics blog, for now Mr. Domenici is "getting a pretty good break" in his home state. No one's lined up to run against him, so no one's out raising money off of this scandal and no one's gloating to the press about it. "No one thought he was vulnerable before this," Mr. Monahan told me. Thus, if Mr. Domenici doesn't retire, he may just get a free ride despite the scandal. Former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, a Democrat, is unlikely to run against Mr. Domenici after running a disappointing and unsuccessful campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Heather Wilson last year. And no one at the state legislative level is likely to jump in, either. They're just too risk averse, according to Mr. Monahan.
However, should Mr. Domenici retire (as Democrats in Washington, D.C., would like to see happen), the open seat would turn into a fierce battle and good pickup opportunity for the Democrats — much like the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Wayne Allard in Colorado.
With Mr. Domenici gone from the scene, there wouldn't be a strong Republican replacement. Mr. Domenici has been grooming Ms. Wilson, but she's neck-deep in the U.S. attorneys scandal, too, and likely to face a probe from the House Ethics Committee on the topic. Aside from Ms. Wilson on the Republican side, there is Rep. Steve Pearce. According to Mr. Monahan, his people haven't been shy about having his name mentioned as a possible successor to Mr. Domenici.
On the Democratic side, in the case of a Domenici retirement, Ms. Madrid might stand a better chance running for an open seat than she did against Ms. Wilson. And, then, there is the 500-lb. gorilla: Governor Richardson. Mr. Richardson, of course, is running for president. But were his presidential campaign to fail to gain momentum (the likely scenario), he could jump into the race. The X factor here is whether Mr. Richardson wants to be in the Senate, or whether he's really angling for vice president or a cabinet position.
(Mr. Monahan rated it as rather unlikely Mr. Richardson would run against Mr. Domenici, should he choose not to retire.)
And, so, the question really hinges on whether Mr. Domenici has the stomach to weather the scandal. It's sad, Mr. Monahan told me, "It's one of those demarcation lines, pre-scandal and post-scandal ... No one will ever think of him the same." He's certainly getting a whupping from the press in his home state. The U.S. attorneys scandal is playing big in the papers and on TV. The Albuquerque Journal, a paper that's been a big supporter of Mr. Domenici, called in an editorial for a special prosecutor to investigate the matter, calling Mr. Domenici's and Ms. Wilson's actions "ethically tone-deaf at best."
Mr. Domenici, for his part, is taking the scandal seriously and has hired a lawyer: Lee Blalack, who recently represented former congressman Randy 'Duke' Cunningham (R-CA), who is now serving time in prison for bribery and other offenses. He's also issued a statement that does little to deflect the charges against him.
So, the senator's fate is largely in his own hands (though, Mr. Monahan cautions that this all "could flush out a competitive candidate here" who's not yet obvious). It's still not good news for the Republican Party when it comes to the GOP's chances of taking back the Senate.
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