NYC: Bloomberg Would Make Better Prez Than Rudy (What do you think?)
by Ryan Sager
Wed, 14 Mar 2007 at 12:21 PM
updated Wed, 14 Mar 2007 at 12:21 PM
More New York City voters would choose Mayor Bloomberg for president than would choose the city's former mayor, Rudy Giuliani.
In a Quinnipiac poll released this morning — conducted March 6-12 among 1,261 registered New York City voters — New Yorkers said by a margin of 46%-31% that Mr. Bloomberg "would make a better president" than Mr. Giuliani.
What do NYSunPolitics readers think? Let us know by commenting on this post, and we'll print some of your responses later today. Now, however, to take a look at what this poll tells us...
Basically, it tells us two really, really obvious things:
1) New York City is a Democratic city (and Mr. Bloomberg is a moderate Democrat in all but name).
2) Mr. Bloomberg is an extremely popular mayor.
Taking those in reverse order...
Mr. Bloomberg's approval rating is a stratospheric 73%-19%. His support doesn't fall below 66% approval among any ethnic group or in any borough of the city. And this approval comes after two incidents — the mayor's handling of the Valentine's Day snowstorm and his handling of a school bus schedule change — where the public got pretty ticked off at him. As the director of the Quinnipiac poll, Maurice Carroll, puts it: "New Yorkers like you, Mayor Mike, even on your bad days."
Now, as to the first point. Here's how the Mike vs. Rudy presidential question broke down percentage-wise by party, ethnic group, borough, etc.:
| |
Total |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
| Bloomberg |
46 |
29 |
53 |
49 |
42 |
59 |
36 |
| Giuliani |
31 |
60 |
22 |
32 |
39 |
17 |
38 |
| DK/NA |
22 |
11 |
25 |
19 |
19 |
24 |
25 |
| |
Bronx |
Brooklyn |
Manhattan |
Queens |
Staten Island |
Men |
Women |
| Bloomberg |
45 |
44 |
60 |
41 |
33 |
47 |
45 |
| Giuliani |
33 |
34 |
19 |
34 |
51 |
32 |
31 |
| DK/NA |
23 |
22 |
21 |
25 |
16 |
20 |
24 |
So, we see pretty clearly here that New York City Republicans favor Mr. Giuliani, 60%-29%, over Mr. Bloomberg. Mr. Giuliani also wins Hispanics, 38%-36%, and comes close among whites, 39%-42%.
Mr. Giuliani's weaknesses are among Democrats (though, getting even 22% of New York City Democrats is pretty good) and particularly blacks (where he trails Mr. Bloomberg by 42 points, the biggest gap in the poll).
So, what does all this tell us about the presidential race? Well, it's unlikely we'll see a Bloomberg-Giuliani-Democrat-to-be-named-later showdown in the general (though, we New Yorkers can hope). Mr. Bloomberg's advisers have said that he is 80% likely to run for president if the two major parties put up candidates on the extreme ends of the ideological spectrum — but it doesn't seem likely anyone would include Mr. Bloomberg's predecessor in office under this definition.
What it tells us more about is Mr. Giuliani's strengths and weaknesses among the people who know him best.
Jumping out: New York City Republicans like the former mayor quite a bit. Likewise, he does very well with ethnic and working-class whites (his best borough is Staten Island). Black voters, however, really don't like Mr. Giualini. But given that President Bush got 9% and 11% of the black vote in 2000 and 2004, respectively, this wouldn't represent a big change for the Republican Party.
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