The McCain Response
by Ryan Sager
Thu, 8 Mar 2007 at 3:30 PM
updated Thu, 8 Mar 2007 at 3:32 PM
I just got off the phone with a consultant to the McCain campaign — who was speaking on background — getting his take on the recent surge of Mayor Giuliani (and tanking of Senator McCain) in the polls.
"I look at it as, 'Who would you rather be at this point?'," the consultant said. Mr. Giuliani's support is high, but it's also "quite thin." More important than the polls right now, he argues, is to look at Mr. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratings.
So, let's look at those ratings in a couple of polls...
First off, let's look at Gallup (mentioned by our McCain consultant friend). Mr. McCain's fav-unfav ratings are solid among adults at large and compare with Mr. Giuliani's. In a March 2-4 Gallup poll Mr. McCain's fav-unfav is 57%-25% among adults; Mr. Giuliani's is 64%-21%. In other words, Mr. Giuliani has higher positives and lower negatives, though not by a lot in either case.
The picture changes significantly, however, when you look at the two candidates' ratings among Republicans and Republican leaners — a group more relevant to the primary campaign. There, the former mayor has a clear lead. Mr. Giuliani's fav-unfav with this group is 78%-10% (net 68%); Mr. McCain's fav-unfav is 67%-19% (net 48%).
The hopeful note from this Gallup poll for Mr. McCain is in this graph (click through, I'll wait right here). In it, one can see a slight upward trend for Mr. McCain's net favorability rating among Republicans and Republican leaners and a slight dip for Mr. Giuliani's.
However, a somewhat older Gallup poll, conducted in January of 2007, put Messrs. Giuliani and McCain head-to-head — and it shows how far Mr. McCain really has to travel. Mr. Giuliani had a pretty sizeable advantage on a number of crucial measures, top among them "likeability":
| |
Giuliani |
McCain |
Advantage |
| Is more likeable |
74 |
21 |
G +53 |
| Would be better in a crisis |
68 |
28 |
G, +40 |
| Would do more to unite the country |
65 |
28 |
G, +37 |
| Is the stronger leader |
59 |
34 |
G, +25 |
Has the better chance of
beating the Democratic
nominee in the 2008
presidential election |
55 |
38 |
G, +17 |
Would run the more positive
campaign |
50 |
38 |
G, +12 |
| Is more qualified to be president |
41 |
50 |
M, +9 |
| Would work better with Congress |
41 |
52 |
M, +11 |
| Has higher ethical standards |
35 |
50 |
M, +15 |
The McCain camp is also excited about a poll just out from American Research Group showing Mr. McCain within 4 percentage points of Mr. Giuliani nationally, in contrast to most polls showing in the neighborhood of a 20-point gap. ARG president Dick Bennett tells me his poll is more accurate than most of the other national polls floating around because he's measuring likely Republican primary voters and caucus-goers (they self-identify by telling ARG they will definitely vote).
"The level of alarm is a bit overstated," the McCain consultant tells me. "Senator McCain is the only one positioned to run a national campaign ... Giuliani's trying to build one. With McCain, it's already built." Mr. McCain's problems with conservatives are also overrated, according to the consultant. "We've rolled out some big conservatives so far," he said, ticking off the former senator from Texas, Phil Gramm, Rep. Chip Pickering of Mississippi, and Senator Kyl of Arizona.
(A cynic might note that Mr. Gramm was supported by Mr. McCain in his quixotic bid for the presidency in 1996 and may feel obligated. And Mr. Kyl is merely sticking with the hometown boy.)
Mr. McCain may not quite be on skid row, but he still has a big deficit to make up. The McCain camp expresses confidence that they can do it, but they have to be counting on Mr. Giuliani taking a big hit. The gap simply cannot be closed on Mr. McCain's positive momentum alone.
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