The 'Might Runs'
by Ryan Sager
Mon, 12 Mar 2007 at 1:01 PM
updated Mon, 12 Mar 2007 at 1:07 PM
Is there any way someone could put a moratorium on presidential non-announcements? I realize it might raise some First Amendment concerns to bar senators and former senators — by all necessary physical force — from going on TV shows or holding press conferences to declare that they might announce at some future date whether they're thinking of running for president (or not), but if McCain-Feingold made it past the Supreme Court, this idea should stand a chance as well.
The latest addition to the pantheon of non-candidates is Senator Hagel of Nebraska. "In making this announcement, I believe there will still be political options open to me at a later date," Mr. Hagel said at a news conference in Omaha this morning. "I cannot control that, and I do not worry about it."
Of course, there are those who have come before him.
Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, is probably the longest-serving might-run at this point, at least on the Republican side. He does very well in any poll of the Republican base, coming in consistently ahead of declared candidates such as Mitt Romney and Senator Brownback of Kansas. He's taken the somewhat odd position that he's not running, but he's waiting to be drafted by his party and his nation. As part of his "please draft me" campaign, Mr. Gingrich has tried to tie up some loose ends, such as by going to Evangelical leader / talk-radio host James Dobson and confessing his personal sins (adultery and hypocrisy) on the public stage.
Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee (and long-serving DA on NBC's "Law & Order"), took to the air on "Fox News Sunday" to declare: "I'm just going to wait and see what happens." He added that he, "wanted to see how my colleagues who are on the campaign trail do now, what they say, what they emphasize, what they're addressing, and how successful they are in doing that, and whether or not they can carry the ball in next November."
So, on the Republican side, we have three supposedly significant might-runs. On the Democratic side, we have just one: Al Gore. I think those numbers tell the story of which side's might-runs actually matter. That is, Mr. Gore has the potential to turn the race on the Democratic side upside down. The same can almost certainly not be said for Messrs. Gingrich, Thompson, or Hagel.
Mr. Gingrich, while a sentimental favorite of some conservatives, is simply a non-starter for the general election; Republicans aren't that stupid. Mr. Thompson is a light-weight in a field with two heavy-weights (Rudy Giuliani and John McCain); he's not a likely choice with the nation at war. And Mr. Hagel ... well, Mr. Hagel hardly has a base outside of the media (making him the McCain of 2008). All three candidates on the GOP side, entering together, would merely divide the undecideds and strengthen the frontrunners.
Mr. Gore hasn't expressed any interest in making an '08 run so far. It could all be a cagey game, though, so we'll just have to wait and see.
In the meantime, we can all await more earth-shattering non-announcements (non-ouncements?).
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