The Rest of the World Comes Around
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 23 Mar 2007 at 1:29 PM
updated Fri, 23 Mar 2007 at 1:30 PM
Kind reader, please forgive me this moment of gloating...
For the last year or so, Rudy Giuliani has been the clear frontrunner in virtually every national poll of Republicans, and he's been the clear frontrunner in most state polls, as well. Regardless, the rest of the media have insisted on calling Senator McCain of Arizona "the frontrunner."
I've been beating the drum rather loudly for more than a year now, making the case that Rudy's numbers would not collapse once his candidacy became a reality, as opposed to just a possibility. In fact, quite the opposite happened. As is visible in the NYSP Index for the national GOP primary (at left), Mr. Giuliani's numbers shot up sharply when his candidacy finally became serious in February.
One of the barometers of the conventional wisdom about '08 is the Washington Post, and its blog's rankings of the contenders on both sides. Finally, in a post today, the Washington Post is ranking Mr. Giuliani as the frontrunner:
1. Rudy Giuliani: Talk to a dozen or two Republican political operatives about who they think will win the nomination and there's a decided lack of consensus. But the candidate who gets named the most in those conversations is none other than Giuliani. There's no question that the former mayor of New York City remains a tough sell to the average Republican voter in Iowa or South Carolina. One thing in Hizzoner's favor is the fact that the nomination calendar is changing rapidly, as states like New York, California and Florida all appear ready to move their primaries up to Feb. 5, 2008, or sooner. Those moves give Giuliani a believable path to the nomination that simply didn't exist in earlier primary fights. That path is not without peril, however. To date, most of the focus of the Giuliani coverage has been on his social views and how they might be out of step with Republican voters. If the nomination fight is bound to occur in states with more moderate GOP voters, we can expect the spotlight in the coming weeks and months to turn to Giuliani's business dealings and his personal life. Can Giuliani weather it? (Previous ranking: 2)
McCain is ranked second and Romney third by the Post.
Note the role the Post ascribes to the early, big-state primary taking shape on February 5, 2008. I wrote about that here a few days ago. The fact is, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are going to be far less important this year than in the past. And that benefits Mr. Giuliani and Senator Clinton.
I don't agree with the Post's analysis that Mr. Giuliani couldn't win otherwise — he's shown a lot of popularity with very conservative voters, especially in Iowa — but it certainly makes his life easier.
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