A CNN/WMUR poll has Rudy Giuliani tied with John McCain for the first time in New Hampshire, 29%-29%. Mitt Romney's in third with 17%. Counter to the national picture, Mr. McCain had been enjoying a small lead in New Hampshire, where he's always been strong (his 2000 campaign got its boost when he won the Granite State). As of February, that lead was down to one point; now it's gone.
Mr. Giuliani has actually lost significant ground among conservatives in this most recent poll; he is tied with Mr. Romney (24%-24%) for the votes of conservatives. Mr. Giuliani lost 7 points with those voters, Mr. Romney gained 11 points. But Mr. Giuliani won enough moderates over — he's up 11 points with them — that he's still doing quite well.
When asked directly Wednesday if he still supported the use of public funding for abortions, Giuliani said "Yes."
"If it would deprive someone of a constitutional right," he explained, "If that's the status of the law, yes."
But the presidential candidate reiterated his personal opposition to the practice.
"I'm in the same position now that I was 12 years ago when I ran for mayor -- which is, personally opposed to abortion, don't like it, hate it, would advise that woman to have an adoption rather than abortion, hope to find the money for it," he said. "But it is your choice, an individual right. You get to make that choice, and I don't think society should be putting you in jail."
This is actually fairly surprising, even though it's the position Mr. Giuliani has taken for some time.
As recently as March 1, Bill Simon, Mr. Giuliani's domestic policy guru, told National Review this, as recounted by Kathryn Jean Lopez:
asked if he had any assurance that Giuliani wouldn't support taxpayer-funded abortion as president, Simon told National Review Online, "I have an assurance that he is in favor of the Hyde amendment" (which forbids such taxpayer subsidies)
I don't think there would be any way to square support for the Hyde amendment with Mr. Giuliani's comments today.
And thus, as more and more things like this drip out, you see a softening of conservative support for Mr. Giuliani. What people have to remember, though, is that it's not only conservatives who nominate a candidate in the GOP. Mr. Giuliani only has to win enough conservatives. But the moderates who are moving toward him matter, too.
UPDATE: This National Review post, though written by a confirmed Romneyite, probably gives a fairly accurate sense of conservative reaction.
UPDATE II: CNN has updated their story with this: "The Giuliani campaign noted later in the day that the former mayor would not seek to make any changes to current law, which restricts federal funding to cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother."
It's been my general impression that Mr. Giuliani has been running a somewhat undisciplined operation with these off-the-cuff remarks. Some might call it Straight Talk; others might call it a bad idea. Probably, it's a bit of both.
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