Dems: Who Can Win the West?
by Ryan Sager
Tue, 17 Apr 2007 at 9:44 AM
updated Tue, 17 Apr 2007 at 9:49 AM
One thing to watch as the Democratic primary heats up is the regional question. Any of the Democratic candidates can win the Northeast (though Rudy Giuliani could put, say, New Jersey and Rhode Island into play). None of the Democrats can win the South (John Edwards thinks he can, but he's wrong).
The biggest battlegrounds are most likely to be the Midwest (as usual) and the interior West (a new development). A couple of data points recently have made me begin to suspect that Barack Obama is the most electable Democratic candidate out West — and, thus, given how crucial that region is, perhaps the most electable candidate in the electoral college, period.
First off, this morning, the Denver Post has an interesting story...
That is:
Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama raised more early money in Colorado than any other candidate, with residents of Boulder and Denver first in line to support the Illinois senator, an analysis of federal records shows.
The $565,087 amassed by Obama dwarfed the amounts raised by other top-tier Democrats in Colorado. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton netted only $84,535, and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards raised $78,350. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson garnered $151,950.
Colorado, of course, is at the forefront of the purpling of the interior West. New Mexico has long sat on a razor's edge, decided by a handful of votes in 2000 and 2004. But Colorado has seen the most movement from Red to Blue. Both houses of the state legislature flipped from Republican to Democrat in 2004 in Colorado. Democrat Ken Salazar won a formerly Republican Senate seat in 2004, and his brother won a House seat that same year. Another House seat in Colorado flipped to Democratic control in 2006. And, to top it all off, a Democrat, Bill Ritter, was elected governor in 2006 — bringing the number of Democratic governorships in the interior West up to 5 of 8.
And, so now it turns out that Mr. Obama beat Hillary Clinton nearly seven-fold in his fundraising in Colorado. That says something about his viability out West.
Plus, so does this: This recent Time poll shows that Mrs. Clinton has some regional weakness, in the Democratic primary, against Mr. Obama out West. In the region, Mr. Obama holds her lead down to a mere 2%. Sure, this is Democrat-versus-Democrat, but it still goes to show his popularity in the region.
In that same poll, Mr. Edwards keeps Mrs. Clinton's lead down a bit in the Northeast — but, again, who cares? The region's sewn up. Mr. Obama's regional strength matters, because it's in the right places.
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