From Whom Does Thompson Pull?
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 20 Apr 2007 at 11:26 AM
updated Fri, 20 Apr 2007 at 11:26 AM
Well, there's been some discussion on this blog as to just from whom Fred Thompson was pulling his support. In some of the early primary states, different answers presented themselves. Newt Gingrich fell hard when Mr. Thompson was added to some polls. Rudy Giuliani also took a big hit when Mr. Thompson was added to others.
Well, the recent Washington Post/ABC News poll has given us some of the first, real, hard data. And the answer is: Mr. Thompson pulls significantly from all of the top tier (and Mr. Gingrich), but Mr. Giuliani takes the biggest hit.
The full poll is here. Take a look at question 40...
It asks Fred Thompson voters who their second choice is. The results are as follows in this table:
| Candidate |
% |
| Giuliani |
37 |
| McCain |
22 |
| Romney |
10 |
| Gingrich |
7 |
| T. Thompson |
2 |
| Huckabee |
1 |
Basically, it seems he pulls from all candidates in rough proportion to how they're doing in the polls. This means, however, that Mr. Giuliani has the most to lose as the frontrunner. He also has the most to gain if Mr. Thompson forgoes a run, or if Mr. Thompson's appeal evaporates on contact with sunlight.
This also lines up with the fact that polls that have pulled Mr. Thompson out of the rotation have seen a big jump for Rudy.
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