Giuliani: Not Dead Yet
by Ryan Sager
Thu, 19 Apr 2007 at 12:33 AM
updated Thu, 19 Apr 2007 at 12:38 AM
Yes, in writing that headline about the longstanding frontrunner, my tongue is planted firmly in cheek.
Still, much attention has been paid to Rudy Giuliani's dip in the polls recently. And, as can be seen in the latest NYSP Indices, that drop has been pronounced.
It's worth remembering, however, that Mr. Giuliani is not just the frontrunner because a lot of Republicans pick him as their first choice. He's also the frontrunner because Republicans who have other first choices (Newt Gingrich, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney) see him as an acceptable second choice. Please turn your attention to this recent CBS News poll...
In the poll, respondents are asked to make their choices within the context of a two- (Giuliani-McCain) or three- (Giuliani-McCain-Romney) man race. In the two man race, Mr. Giuliani wins decisively, 52%-29%. In the three man race, Mr. Giuliani also wins decisively, 47%-25%-10%.
This is no small matter, as many candidates will have dropped out by the time votes are cast in an actual straw poll or primary. What's more, after the early primary states, the field will narrow even further. We very plausibly could see a Giuliani-McCain battle to the death — and, as I've long argued, such a match-up is not good news for Mr. McCain.
Still, Fred Thompson remains the wild card. The more polls that stack up, the clearer it is that he cuts significantly into Mr. Giuliani's support.
He also negates the logic behind the Romney candidacy, but Mitt doesn't have far to fall.
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