The Latest NYSP Indices
by Ryan Sager
Mon, 16 Apr 2007 at 12:55 PM
updated Mon, 16 Apr 2007 at 1:00 PM
We've updated our GOP and Dem primary indices for April, to take account of the major, national, public polls taken so far. You can click here to take a look at the indices and the data behind them, OR you can always click the tab on our menu bar, or look at the graphs on our home page.
The story, at least on the Republican side, is that so far this month both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are dipping in support. Mr. McCain's below 20, and Mr. Giuliani's just above 30.
So, why are both of these candidates falling? Mitt Romney has edged up ever so slightly (from 7 to 8 to 9) over the last three months, but the real story is Fred Thompson, as this graph below the fold should make clear...
So far, we've decided not to include Fred Thompson in our indices. He has significant public support, but he's not a declared candidate. And if we are just going to start including popular folks who aren't running, why not include Newt Gingrich on the Republican side, Al Gore on the Democratic side, John Kerry on the Democratic side (OK, just kidding, he's not popular), or, well, just about anybody else. Soon, the chart would just look like a bowl of spaghetti — and no one wants that.
Still, he's becoming a major factor in the race as conservatives unhappy with the Big Three, who've been casting about for a conservative "savior" candidate, jump on the Draft Fred bandwagon.
So, here's what our GOP primary index would look like if we added a line to track Fred Thompson (the short one in light blue):
Mr. Thompson's line starts in March, of course, because virtually no polling organization was offering him as an option to voters until then — and for good reason: He hadn't expressed any interest in running.
So, how has the Fred Thompson boomlet affected the other candidates in the race? Well, it's interesting that since February, the last month where Mr. Thompson wasn't a factor, Mr. Giuliani and Mr. McCain have fallen in the neighborhood of 5 points each.
Now, there are other reason that help explain these declines: For Mr. Giuliani, February marked the month he got into the presidential race for real. After an initial bump of excitement, he's been having some rough times in the press, between the public getting acquainted with his wife, some missteps on abortion, etc. For Mr. McCain, his slide started — well, it's been going on so long our index doesn't capture its genesis.
Still, as the two big dogs have taken their hits, Mitt Romney isn't picking up the slack. Neither is Newt Gingrich. Seemingly, much of the slack is being picked up by ... [sound of trumpets] Mr. Thompson.
There's still plenty of reason to doubt just how much Republican primary voters really know about Mr. Thompson. But it's become undeniable that he would turn the race on its head — at least for a while — should he choose to enter.
So, is he going to? If he's not, he's certainly putting out a lot of signals to mislead us otherwise. Announcing his cancer publicly would have been rather unnecessary, were he planning to stay a private citizen. He fetched up in the Wall Street Journal's venerable Weekend Edition this Saturday with an op-ed about how wonderful tax cuts are.
And, hey, Bob Novak thinks he's getting in.
And, oh, one last note. If you didn't catch it at the end of that OpinionJournal piece, there now seems to be something called "The Fred Thompson Report" on ABC Radio.
According to the "About this Show" squib: " The Fred Thompson Report contains the commentaries and opinons [sic] of Fred Dalton Thompson. Mr. Thompson is a former Republican senator from Tennessee whose commentaries, 'The Fred Thompson Report,' can be heard on the ABC Radio network."
That's an awful lot of posturing an opinionizing for a non-candidate.
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