Thompson Seriousness Watch
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 at 8:21 AM
updated Fri, 6 Apr 2007 at 8:26 AM
Coming on the heels of Bob Novak's "Thompson Is for Real" column, we've got the Politico's Mike Allen writing that the former senator from Tennessee, Fred Thompson, is gearing up for a run for president.
How so? Well, apparently he's "assembling the nucleus of a campaign" and "talking to some of the top unaligned strategists" (How many could possibly be left? Or, how are we defining "top" here?)
Mr. Allen also reports: "Thompson's coming-out as a candidate-in-waiting will be a May 4 appearance at the 45th annual dinner of the Lincoln Club of Orange County in the heart of Ronald Reagan country in Southern California."
I think if Mr. Thompson is going to get in, he probably wants to wait until he last possible second, at this point. He's already missed any benefit he could have gained from entering earlier. So, now, it makes more sense to let speculation grow for a few months, and then come in at the last second when everyone's already sick of the other candidates.
Now, I don't think this last-second strategy works for everyone. Newt Gingrich is clearly counting on something like this (should he not just choose to forgo a run altogether). But he's already defined in the public mind — negatively so.
As we saw the other day, people still know next to nothing about Mr. Thompson — aside from a general impression that he seems like a good guy. Why take the spitballs and knives in the back for a few extra months when all it will do is give your enemies more time to define you?
Now, at a substantive level, I'm not sure this is how you nominate a candidate. I think the long primary is a good thing. It lets voters get to know the candidates fairly intimately. But, if I were the Thompson camp, I wouldn't want to let that happen. No matter what the substance behind the man, it's not going to be better than relatively undefined good/tough-guy image he's got going for him now.
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