WSJ: Thompson's Delay Is Costly
by Ryan Sager
Mon, 9 Apr 2007 at 6:36 AM
updated Mon, 9 Apr 2007 at 1:40 AM
The Wall Street Journal's not really breaking any news here, but it's certainly right: Every day Fred Thompson delays is a day he's not raising money, not signing up endorsements from local pols in early primary states, and not signing up experienced campaign operatives.
However, I would make the opposite argument, as I did just the other day here.
Mr. Thompson's already lost many of the advantages a candidate might gain from jumping in early. Why jump in now? Instead, it's probably smartest to wait until the last plausible second and then jump in when everyone's sick of all of the other candidates.
Sure, there are costs, as the Journal points out:
Mr. Thompson's deliberations have already cost him a natural ally. Ted Welch, a wealthy Nashville businessman with an uncanny knack for raising political cash, has long been the go-to guy for Republicans seeking the highest office. A successful commercial real-estate developer, he has served as Republican National Committee fund-raising chairman, and as a chief fund-raiser for Ronald Reagan, President Bush and his father in their campaigns. He has also given generously to mainly Republican candidates -- $600,000 in the last 10 years, according to campaign filings.
This time around he is pledged to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. "Fred is a dear friend," Mr. Welch said in a telephone interview. "But I committed to Mitt Romney, and once I committed I can't back out."
...
This applies to other requirements of a presidential campaign, too. Top campaign staff get snapped up early, as do local politicians able to drum up support in some states.
Last week, for example, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani recruited Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum to lead his efforts there. He had earlier won the endorsement of Louisiana Sen. David Vitter. Both are from states that as a Southern conservative Mr. Thompson could be expected to run well -- if he was in the race.
But how big are these costs, really? Mr. Welch, as I've noted before, seems like he'd love to get the chance to abandon the Romney ship — he's even speculated openly about Mr. Romney dropping out of the race. And Messrs. McCollum and Vitter? While endorsements are nice, they have a pretty limited impact on actual voters. And it seems likely that Mr. Thompson could rack up a good number of former Senate colleagues rather quickly. As the Sun has noted, senators have been quite slow to sign up with the existing 2008 camps so far.
The best plan for Mr. Thompson still seems to be to wait. Let voters figure out who you are. Stand above the fray for a while. Avoid media and opposition scrutiny. And then swoop in six months from now as the conservative "savior" candidate.
Nothing's guaranteed. But it seems like entering the race in late April or early May would just risk popping the bubble.
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