ARG: McCain Leads IA, NH, SC
by Ryan Sager
Tue, 1 May 2007 at 5:38 PM
updated Tue, 1 May 2007 at 5:48 PM
The McCain campaign is pushing hard to draw attention to the latest round of polls just released by American Research Group for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
And it's clear why: They show the slumping senator leading in all three early primary states — by 7% over Rudy Giuliani in Iowa, by 5% over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and by 13% over Mr. Giuliani in South Carolina.
In two of the three states, the ARG results reverse the previous round of polls by other firms done in early April. In Iowa, Strategic Vision had Mr. Giuliani up over Mr. McCain. In New Hampshire, Messrs. McCain and Romney were tied. (Mr. McCain's lead in South Carolina has been confirmed over the course of numerous polls.)
So, the thing to watch is whether Mr. McCain's lead bears out in other polls in Iowa and New Hampshire in coming weeks.
I still believe the February 5, 2008, big-state Super Duper Tuesday primary is going to render the early three primaries irrelevant. Well, with this caveat, applicable to both parties' primaries. If one candidate wins all three, the big states' results will probably reflect that — though, it's by no means a certainty, if there's a big gap between the national polls and the early state results.
But if the early states split between two or three candidates, the national results will control.
So, while a Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani can lose one or two of the big three, a John McCain or John Edwards has to pull off a hat trick. Thus, Mr. McCain's got to hope those ARG numbers are on the mark.
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