California Dreaming (First, Probably Not Last, Use of This Headline)
by Ryan Sager
Wed, 23 May 2007 at 1:57 PM
updated Wed, 23 May 2007 at 2:00 PM
The McCain camp is thrilled to be within three points of Rudy Giuliani in this latest ARG California poll: Giuliani 27%, McCain 24%, Thompson 12%, Romney 11%.
The interesting thing about California, of course, is that its delegates will be allocated by congressional district, as opposed to winner-take-all. While California will be part of the February 5 mega-primary, it will really be a congressional-district-by-congressional-district fight. And the question will be how the Republican candidates attack that.
Full results after the jump...
One question is which candidate has the best chance of going after the majority-minority districts, where there are hardly any Republicans. I know the Romney camp is looking at this. Though I wonder if another candidate might not be better suited (Mr. Giuliani, because he's won in New York, Mr. Thompson because of his celebrity)?
There's also the question of an Ahnold endorsement. There's some speculation that it could go to Mr. Giuliani (who was one of the only candidates in the California debate to say (8:22) he'd change the Constitution to let Ahnold run himself — the other was Mike Huckabee — Mr. Romney was a no and Mr. McCain deflected the question with a joke). That seems a bit more likely recently, given that Ahnold favors comprehensive immigration reform and Mr. Romney (now) opposes it. Mr. McCain, of course, could still get the nod.
Anyway, without further ado, here are those charts with the full results. Note, in the second one, that Mr. Giuliani leads by 10 points among Republicans, while Mr. McCain leads by 28 points among Republican-leaning Independents.
| California |
| Likely Republican Primary Voters |
Jan 2007 |
May 2007 |
| |
| Brownback |
- |
1% |
| Gilmore |
- |
1% |
| Giuliani |
33% |
27% |
| Gingrich |
19% |
5% |
| Hagel |
5% |
1% |
| Huckabee |
- |
1% |
| Hunter |
1% |
1% |
| McCain |
18% |
24% |
| Pataki |
- |
- |
| Paul |
ni |
- |
| Romney |
3% |
11% |
| Tancredo |
ni |
1% |
| F Thompson |
ni |
12% |
| T Thompson |
- |
1% |
| Undecided |
22% |
13% |
| Likely Republican Primary Voters |
Republicans (83%) |
Independents (17%) |
| |
| Brownback |
1% |
- |
| Gilmore |
1% |
- |
| Giuliani |
29% |
18% |
| Gingrich |
6% |
2% |
| Hagel |
1% |
1% |
| Huckabee |
1% |
- |
| Hunter |
1% |
- |
| McCain |
19% |
46% |
| Pataki |
- |
- |
| Paul |
1% |
- |
| Romney |
13% |
4% |
| Tancredo |
1% |
1% |
| F Thompson |
12% |
13% |
| T Thompson |
1% |
- |
| Undecided |
13% |
15% |
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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