Florida, Florida, Florida
by Ryan Sager
Thu, 24 May 2007 at 1:30 PM
updated Thu, 24 May 2007 at 1:31 PM
With its shiny new January 29 primary, Florida is in for a lot of attention this primary season. That said, here are three interrelated issues to think about as the Big Three in the GOP position themselves in the Sunshine State, especially in the wake of the grand immigration compromise.
1) Has Mitt Romney hurt himself (by coming out against "amnesty") with the Florida GOP's largely Hispanic infrastructure?
2) Has Mr. Romney hurt himself with the once-supportive Jeb Bush?
3) What to make of a new poll out (PDF) showing a tremendous drop in Florida for John McCain, a big jump for Mr. Romney, and an amazing second-place showing for Fred Thompson?
Let's take them one at a time:
1) This Miami Herald story details the fact that Mr. Romney's stance is at odds with much of the Florida GOP establishment:
Romney, who will visit Jacksonville and Lakeland today, has campaigned more aggressively in Hispanic-rich Florida than any of his GOP rivals. But his immigration stance is at odds with some of the state's most prominent Republicans, including Sen. Mel Martinez, who helped craft the legislation, and Gov. Charlie Crist, who supports allowing illegal immigrants to earn citizenship.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush -- whom Romney has name-dropped as a potential running mate -- has told friends he is "disappointed" with Romney's position.
"I don't speak for Jeb, but I know that as a supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, he is disappointed in people who are exploiting the issue for political gain," said Republican lobbyist Ana Navarro, who is backing Arizona Sen. John McCain.
Whether that hurts him with actual GOP primary voters is an open question for another day. But it's not good to be on the wrong side of the state party's establishment.
2) But what about Jeb? Ms. Navarro has given her take as regards Jeb's thoughts and feelings on the matter. But this St. Petersburg Times blog post reports that the former governor emailed in with this comment: "Interesting that the press writes these days about unverified speculation as though it is true. I am not disappointed in Governor Romney." It's interesting that Jeb wants to make this show of public support (or at least public non-disappointment), but I trust the original story more than Jeb's and the Romney campaign's spin.
3) Then, there's this new poll (again, PDF) out of Florida, by a firm named Datamar. It shows John McCain having plummeted to 12% in the polls down there, in fourth place, behind Rudy Giuliani at 27%, Fred Thompson in a shocking second place at 22%, and Mitt Romney in a strong third at 18%. Now, this poll is a major outlier from other recent polls in Florida — but it's also the first one taken during a time period that encompasses the immigration compromise (May 14-18 ... the compromise was announced on the 17th). The second most recent poll was by Strategic Vision, way back on May 11-13. It had Mr. Giuliani out front with 32%, Mr. McCain at 20%, Mr. Thompson at 10%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, and Mr. Romney in fifth with 5%.
So, what to make of it?
All of the recent polls have lined up much more closely with the Strategic Vision poll than with this most recent poll by Datamar. But that's not to say the most recent poll hasn't captured the dynamic of a radically changed state race — one where Mr. Romney has shot up by about 10 points, along with Mr. Thompson, who has also opposed the immigration compromise. If the Datamar sample of the Republican primary electorate in Florida is accurate, its voters list immigration as the most important problem facing the nation, above even Iraq (immigration got 38%, Iraq got 28%, and nothing else even came close).
Therefore, if this poll and its sample are close to reality (to be clear: I think this is an open question and await more polling), Mr. Romney's shift in his position on immigration may have been a brilliant move, at least as relates to Florida, despite the institutional players it may tick off.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Immigration, Poll Analysis
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