Gallup: Giuliani's Complicated Lead
by Ryan Sager
Tue, 22 May 2007 at 5:46 AM
updated Tue, 22 May 2007 at 5:48 AM
This Gallup poll is from mid-last week, but there are a few things about it worth mentioning. Key is that Rudy Giuliani's lead has narrowed ... and it hasn't. In this latest poll, Mr. Giuliani holds a 6-point lead, 29% to 23% over John McCain. That's down from a 34%-20% lead in early May. But here's Gallup:
Giuliani held a 14-point lead over McCain, 34% to 20%, in early May. But neither his five-point decline to 29% in the latest poll, nor McCain's three-point increase, are statistically significant changes. Thus, it is important to wait until the next poll to see whether the race has truly tightened, or whether the apparently closer race merely reflects random variation because of normal sampling error.
That makes sense because the numbers are unlikely to have moved that much, especially after Mr. Giuliani's strong performance at the second Republican debate.
What's more, and this is particularly interesting, Gallup attributes much of Mr. Giuliani's movement to the addition of Fred Thompson to the poll (and, potentially, the race). Mr. Giuliani's favorability has stayed on an even keel with Republican voters — so Republicans haven't soured on the former mayor. Mr. McCain's favorability has actually risen a bit, possibly accounting for his bump — should it persist in future Gallup polls.
But while Messrs. Giuliani and McCain may be bunching closer together in the multi-candidate field, Gallup has also been measuring their performance head-to-head — and since January that race hasn't tightened a bit:
At least not a statistically significant bit.
While the Giuliani camp would surely like to return to the days of a 20-point lead, that was always an exaggerated number. But the belief in some quarters that Mr. Giuliani has tanked is equally, if not more, unrealistic. The former New York City mayor has proven quite resilient despite an onslaught of bad press in February, March, and April.
We continue to be in for one heck of a race.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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