Giuliani: Getting Straight on Abortion
by Ryan Sager
Thu, 10 May 2007 at 12:33 AM
updated Thu, 10 May 2007 at 12:38 AM
If this New York Times story is accurate — and I think it is, since it seems to have been placed by Rudy Giuliani's campaign — Mr. Giuliani is making a much-needed correction in how he deals with the question of abortion. In essence, stop hemming and hawing and admit you're pro-choice already. Then, hope that Republicans are willing to vote based on other issues.
I've been arguing since the debate (and before) that dancing around abortion was more dangerous than just being pro-choice.
Clearly, the disaster of the debate (and its aftermath and the Planned Parenthood disclosure) led the Giuliani campaign to the same conclusion. Flopping around on the issue isn't going to win over voters basing their primary decision solely on abortion. And it certainly isn't going to do much for Mr. Giuliani's image with the rest of the Republican electorate (not to mention the general electorate).
The Times article also goes into the fact that the Giuliani campaign is pursuing a February 5 strategy. I think that's obviously the right move. And I've been arguing for a little while now that the press has this year's primary story upside down. The Iowa-New Hampshire-South Carolina storyline is a lazy one. We're in a whole new world with the February 5 mega-primary and states like Florida trying to leapfrog their way into a more influential position on the primary calendar.
If someone sweeps the traditional early three — well, then that might mean something. But if there's any kind of split decision, how candidates are positioned nationally is going to matter a whole lot more than whether Mitt Romney can lead in New Hampshire while barely registering on the national stage.
This is why I continue to believe Mr. Giuliani is the prohibitive frontrunner. A few polls (OK, really just one) show Mr. Giuliani's lead having narrowed to next to nothing. But our Latest Politics Index for the GOP race continues to show Mr. Giuliani way out ahead — even after a couple of brutal months. John McCain is stuck right around 20 percent, and, frankly, I don't expect that to change. Mitt Romney is still having trouble with double digits, and I think his appeal is limited. Fred Thompson shows the most potential for growth, but there's a significant chance he won't prove to be the conservative savior for which some have hoped.
And, meanwhile, Mr. Giuliani keeps showing up as the most popular second-choice candidate in the GOP field. This is no consolation prize (especially since he's also the first first-choice candidate). What it means is that when 7 of the 10 men on that stage in California are no longer in the race, their support is going to flow to Team Rudy. And if Mr. Thompson doesn't run or flames out, all the better for the former mayor.
As the Democratic race hardens (both Barack Obama and John Edwards have stalled in the last month), the Republican race remains fluid — not just in terms of who's up and who's down, but in how the playing field itself is shaped. There's no reason Iowa and New Hampshire should dictate to the nation. And while the press and the McCain and Romney campaigns are following an old rulebook, some savvy New Yorkers are working on rewriting it.
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