Giuliani Wins, Romney Loses, Ron Paul Loses, and John McCain Treads Water Again
by Ryan Sager
Tue, 15 May 2007 at 11:09 PM
updated Tue, 15 May 2007 at 11:10 PM
Well, no one ever accused the Romney press shop of modesty. I just got the press release: "Governor Mitt Romney Wins Second Debate Advocating A Stronger America."
Wrong. Wrong. And Wrong.
For the purpose of this instant analysis of the debate, I'm quarantining myself from others' analyses for the next 10 or so minutes. So, here goes. Rudy won. Romney and Paul lost. McCain treaded water, as usual.
I'm guessing, off the bat, that there's going to be an almost irresistible impulse among the dreaded MSM to declare John McCain the winner of tonight's debate and Rudy Giuliani a close second. Here's why they're wrong...
To the liberal or centrist eye, Mr. McCain had some big moments tonight, particularly as relates to the round of questioning dealing with torture. He was eloquent. He got to talk about his POW experience. And he got to take the moral high ground.
But there's a very substantial reason this doesn't count as "winning" in a GOP primary debate. In short, the Republican base is pro-torture. Or, at the very least, pro-enhanced-interrogation-techniques. If one paid attention to the applause during the terrorism-torture round of the debate, one would have to note that Mr. McCain didn't receive any. Mr. Giuliani did when he said: "I would tell the people who had to do the interrogation to use every method they could think of." Tom Tancredo did when he said: "I'm looking for Jack Bauer." Mr. McCain didn't.
So, no surprise, the terrorism round went to Rudy — and it was probably the most important round.
Now, let's look at some of the rest of the debate...
One big theme was Messrs. McCain and Romney sniping at each other — which can only benefit Mr. Giuliani. Mr. Romney said that McCain-Kennedy would do to immigration what McCain-Feingold did to campaign-finance (I'm not sure how exactly the metaphor works, other than that conservative think both ideas are bad). Meanwhile, Mr. McCain noted pointedly: "I haven't changed my position on even-numbered years, or changed because of the different offices that I may be running for."
Score two points for Mr. Giuliani.
And then there was the whole exchange between Messrs. Paul and Giuliani, perhaps the most memorable of the night. Mr. Paul blamed 9/11 on American foreign policy, and Mr. Giuliani came at him hard. "That is an extraordinary statement," Mr. Giuliani said. "I don't think I've ever heard that before, and I've heard some pretty absurd explanations for September 11." It was a huge applause line. (Just a side note: Surely, Mr. Giuliani has heard this line of argument many times ... it sounds like rhetorical flourish to me.)
Mr. McCain's biggest moment, at least from the perspective of the South Carolina primary, was saying about the Confederate flag that "I think it's time we all moved on on this issue." It was a big applause line. But it strikes me as rather disingenuous. Clearly, Mr. McCain thinks the Confederate flag is a symbol of hate (and he's right), and he was pandering to the crowd. Will help him in the primary, but he's being a weasel.
As for Mr. Romney ... he simply didn't have a big moment. His slickness wears thin pretty quickly I think, especially when he constantly has to defend himself against flip-flopping charges — and his defenses are pretty lame. He also weirdly proclaimed: "We ought to double Guantanamo." What does this mean? This guy just says whatever he thinks people want to hear. I gets hard to even listen to.
I also thought that tonight proved that Mr. Giuliani's abortion strategy is working. How much can anyone harp on it when he gives a clear answer and refuses to apologize for it? Can he really get any more abortion questions at these debates? What's left to say?
Anyway, so these are my quick, somewhat disorganized thoughts. Now to see what the rest of the world thought.
UPDATE: Ramesh and I have been agreeing a lot recently. The trend continues tonight.
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