Latest LP Indices
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 18 May 2007 at 10:28 AM
updated Fri, 18 May 2007 at 10:30 AM
We'll have our full, most recent Latest Politics Indices, for both the Republican and Democratic fields, up shortly. But, for now, let me give you the "unofficial" version — as I often do — with unofficial candidate Fred Thompson included. Fred Heads may be disappointed to see Mr. Thompson is actually down a tick so far this month from April — though we're only half-way through the month, so that could change.
The biggest news, however, is that the polls are starting to show a real convergence between Mr. Giuliani's slide and Mr. McCain's essentially steady position around 20%. Now, this convergence still puts them roughly 7 points apart, when you average all the big national polls (as we do), but it's certainly enough to give McCainiacs some hope.
For Camp Giuliani, it's got to be a big worry that they're on the verge of having fallen 10 points since February. Now, I don't actually subscribe to the explanation that this fall has been all about abortion or other social-issue related missteps. I think a lot of this fall has to do with the introduction of a new candidate, Mr. Thompson, who's been pulling more from Mr. Giuliani than from any other candidate. Still, it will be interesting to see whether this slide halts after Mr. Giuliani's perceived "victory" at the second Republican debate (after the disaster of the first), or whether Mr. Thompson keeps picking up steam at Mr. Giuliani's expense.
As for Mr. Thompson, the polls have really been all over the place on him. Some have him at 14%, some at 6%. I wouldn't read much into his up-and-down trends right now except to speculate that he's probably got better than 10% support, there's a big potential for a jump if and when he jumps in, and if I were John McCain (stuck at 20%) I wouldn't be happy to see the former Tennessee senator in my rearview.
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