Rasmussen: Giuliani, 25%; Romney, 16%; McCain, 15%; Thompson, 12%
by Ryan Sager
Tue, 29 May 2007 at 8:43 AM
updated Tue, 29 May 2007 at 8:44 AM
According to the most recent Rasmussen national telephone survey, the immigration bill may be significantly shaking up the GOP primary field, hurting John McCain and helping Mitt Romney.
The results:
Giuliani: 25%
Romney: 16%
McCain: 15%
Thompson: 12%
While this is one poll, and while the difference between Messrs. McCain and Romney is not statistically significant, this still looks like a big deal to me.
For one thing, Mr. McCain had a 6 point lead over Mr. Romney in the last poll, so there has been at least a narrowing — if Mr. Romney has not actually vaulted into second place (given his difficulty in breaking double digits in most national polls, I'd assume Mr. Romney has not done so, at least nationally).
For another, these results match up with what we saw out of Florida at the end of last week (that is, big drop for Mr. McCain, Messrs. Romney and Thompson picking up the slack).
Lastly, this just makes sense. Mr. McCain, already the least favorite son of the conservative movement, had been getting a second look from many conservatives because of his staunch Iraq war support. McCain-Kennedy just brings back everything conservatives hate about Mr. McCain: the "Maverickness," the (perceived) liberalism, the playing to the media at the expense of the base.
Mr. McCain has been holding steady at around 20% in our LP Index for the GOP nomination — even ticking upward. I'd guess (and this truly is a guess, the polls aren't coming in yet) he starts slipping over the coming weeks.
UPDATE: I should note that the Rasmussen poll is a robo-poll, and thus not terribly reliable. Still, movement is movement ... and it lines up with other trends. As always, we'll see as more data comes in.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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