Romney Gains in Iowa
by Ryan Sager
Tue, 22 May 2007 at 12:03 AM
updated Mon, 21 May 2007 at 11:21 PM
So, sorry that I'm just getting to the Des Moines Register poll that has Mitt Romney way out ahead of the pack (at 30% to John McCain's 18% and Rudy Giuliani's 17%). While Mr. Romney's definitely been moving up in Iowa, this result is so far out-of-whack with other recent polls (PDF) that it clearly bears scrutiny.
One obvious difference in this poll versus the others is that Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich are not included. Mr. Thompson is almost certainly running. I'd guess Mr. Gingrich doesn't run, if he has any grip on reality — but who knows.
Another factor affecting the outcome: Mr. Romney's running TV ads in Iowa, his rivals aren't.
Here are the poll's results (also, 12% are undecided):
Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Company. May 12-16, 2007 Voters statewide.
| Romney |
30% |
| McCain |
18% |
| Giuliani |
17% |
| T. Thompson |
7% |
| Brownback |
5% |
| Huckabee |
4% |
| Tancredo |
4% |
| Cox |
1% |
| Gilmore |
1% |
| Hunter |
1% |
| Paul |
- |
Messrs. Thompson and Gingrich would cut significantly into that 30%, were they included in the poll. Still, Mr. Romney stands a very good chance of winning in Iowa. Mr. McCain skipped the state in 2000, and Rudy Giuliani is likely (and correctly) going to de-emphasize the early three states. Add to that the fact that social conservatives play an outsized role in the Iowa caucuses, and ... presto.
Nonetheless, I still believe the race comes down to the February 5 mega-primary.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
Latest Politics Homepage
|
Print
Send
RSS
