Romney's South Carolina Embarrassment
by Ryan Sager
Mon, 14 May 2007 at 6:55 PM
updated Mon, 14 May 2007 at 6:56 PM
There are two interesting things about the most recent poll out of South Carolina, done by Ayres McHenry & Associates: 1) Mitt Romney is in a weak fifth place, despite a massive effort in the state (though he is still ahead of Lindsay Lohan), and 2) Rudy Giuliani is in a strong second place, despite an ugly last couple months.
First things first. The Romney folks always blame his weak showing nationally on his low name ID. He does have weak name ID, but not in South Carolina. There, at least 69% of likely Republican primary voters know enough about him to have an opinion (his fav-unfav is: 54%-15%), and only 13% claim not to have heard of him. Meanwhile, 30% of likely Republican primary voters haven't heard of Fred Thompson, yet he comes in third with 16% of the vote.
Mr. Romney's been running ads, he's been having robo-calls go out with the popular Sen. DeMint's voice, and he's been doing other on-the-ground work. Yet Mr. Thompson beats him by 8 points, Mr. Giuliani beats him by 12 points, and Mr. McCain beats him by 17.
As for Mr. Giuliani, it's fascinating that he seems to have gone up since the last Ayres McHenry & Associates poll in mid-April, while Mr. Thompson has gone up and Mr. McCain has stayed roughly the same. I simply don't have an explanation for it, and I won't insult you by pulling one out of an unfortunate and unlikely orifice.
It's also probably worth noting that, even after these rough last couple months, Mr. Giuliani actually has a better fav-unfav rating than Mr. McCain, despite being in second place.
The full poll results, pulled from the excellent PollingReport.com, are here:
May 5-8, 2007. N=500 likely Republican primary voters statewide. MoE ± 4.4
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"In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president?"
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| |
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| |
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Approve |
Disapprove |
Unsure |
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| |
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% |
% |
% |
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|
| |
5/5-8/07
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86 |
14 |
1 |
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| |
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"Now I would like to read you a list of names and have you tell me, for each one, whether you've heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven't heard of the person, just say so. . . ."
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| |
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|
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| |
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Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No opinion |
Never
Heard of |
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| |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| |
John McCain
|
| |
5/5-8/07 |
66 |
28 |
6 |
0 |
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| |
|
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|
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|
| |
Rudy Giuliani
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| |
5/5-8/07 |
74 |
18 |
6 |
2 |
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| |
|
|
|
|
|
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| |
Newt Gingrich
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| |
5/5-8/07 |
63 |
27 |
8 |
3 |
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| |
|
|
|
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Mitt Romney
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| |
5/5-8/07 |
54 |
15 |
17 |
13 |
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| |
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Fred Thompson
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| |
5/5-8/07 |
48 |
8 |
14 |
30 |
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| |
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"If the Republican primary for president were being held today and the candidates were [see below], for which candidate would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way do you lean as of today, toward [see below]?"
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% |
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| |
John McCain |
25 |
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| |
Rudy Giuliani |
20 |
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Fred Thompson |
16 |
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Newt Gingrich |
12 |
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Mitt Romney |
8 |
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| |
Mike Huckabee |
2 |
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| |
Sam Brownback |
1 |
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Jim Gilmore |
1 |
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Duncan Hunter |
1 |
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Ron Paul |
1 |
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Tom Tancredo |
1 |
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Tommy Thompson |
1 |
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Chuck Hagel |
- |
|
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| |
Unsure
|
13 |
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