Rudy: A Knife to the Throat of the Reagan Coalition?
by Ryan Sager
Mon, 7 May 2007 at 9:13 AM
updated Mon, 7 May 2007 at 9:23 AM
For anyone ready to accuse me of being an anti-Giuliani operative, please remember the Great Law of Headline Question Marks (if a headline asks a yes or no question, the answer is always no).
That said, there's been some interesting back and forth over at the American Spectator's Web site over whether Rudy Giuliani would destroy the Reagan Coalition. Last Tuesday, G. Tracy Mehan, III, a former EPA official in both Bush administrations, wrote an article calling Mr. Giuliani a "knife to the throat" of the Reagan Coalition.
Mehan wrote that Mr. Giuliani "could be the death knell of the Reagan Coalition, that successful alliance of economic, defense, and social conservatives forged in the 1976 Republican primary."
This is wrong on any number of levels. The most important one, I think, being that the "successful alliance of economic, defense, and social conservatives" happened in 1964, with the candidacy of Barry Goldwater — and it would more properly be called the "fusionist coalition" as opposed to the "Reagan Coalition." That fusionist coalition took over the Republican Party in 1964, but it didn't win the presidency until 1980, and that's where the Reagan Coalition comes in — bringing into the Republican fold a large pool of blue-collar Democrats.
A more likely view of what Mr. Giuliani would mean for both the fusionist and Reagan coalitions is provided in a response to Mehan's article by Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas (it's so good I've taken the liberty of quoting it in full):
In regard to Tracy Mehan's article "A Knife to the Throat", I am compelled to respond to his main contention that Rudy Giuliani could be the "death knell of the Reagan Coalition."
Mehan asserts that Rudy Giuliani would disrupt "that successful alliance of economic, defense, and social conservatives forged in the 1976 Republican primary." Not only has the opposite proved true, but this very alliance has already begun to unite behind the Mayor, making him the front-running conservative in the Republican presidential primary.
Mayor Giuliani is a results-oriented leader who believes that "the private economy, not government, creates opportunity." By cutting taxes 23 times, Mayor Giuliani spurred economic growth in NYC and saved taxpayers over $9 billion. Additionally, he cut spending, reducing the number of full-time non-security, non-education city workers by nearly 20%. The result: Mayor Giuliani turned a $2.3 billion budget deficit into a multi-billion dollar surplus.
As mayor of New York City on 9/11, Giuliani understands the threat of terrorism firsthand, and he remains committed to fighting the primary threat against our nation -- the rise of Islamo-fascism. With a well-documented commitment to the security of America and her interests, the Mayor understands that we are engaged in a long-term War on Terror which will determine our very existence and, more specifically, determine whether we will enjoy the luxury of debating economic and social issues at all.
As a pro-life Member of Congress who receives a 100% rating from the American Conservative Union, I believe that social conservatives across the nation are discovering common ground with Giuliani -- discovering that his record is much closer to their own belief than what his political opponents represent. The facts speak for themselves -- because of the policies he supported, abortions decreased over 16% in New York City while adoptions increased by 66% while he was mayor.
Giuliani shares with social conservatives the strong conviction that marriage can only exist between a man and a woman. He maintains the conservative belief that behavior, not our economic system, is responsible for intergenerational poverty, and that to reduce poverty our nation must change its attitude toward marriage and raising children responsibly. "If you wanted a social program that would really save these kids," Giuliani commented, "...the social program would be called fatherhood."
In addition to the growing strength of Giuliani's "Reagan Coalition," Mehan overlooks Giuliani's ability to resurrect one of Reagan's most important coalitions -- Reagan Democrats. Rudy Giuliani will compete in all fifty states, overturning red state/blue state conventional wisdom by placing Democrats on the defense in states that have been solidly blue for years -- states such as New York, New Jersey, and California.
The Reagan Coalitions are more alive today than at anytime since his presidency as economic, defense and social conservatives, and yes, even Reagan Democrats, discover the leadership qualities and conservative government record of Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- qualities that I believe will make him our nation's next President.
-- Congressman Pete Sessions (TX-32)
Mr. Giuliani has a very strong argument to make that his reforms in New York City were a massive triumph of social conservatism, or at the very least a shining example of how small-government means can lead to social-conservative ends.
I'd also note one of the other responses to Mehan's article that the Spectator printed: namely, that President Bush has already destroyed the fusionist coalition with his spending and exploitation of divisive social issues.
While Mr. Bush may not have completely destroyed fusionism, it's clear that it's in need of major repairs. Mr. Giuliani may or may not be the best candidate to effect such repairs. But it seems clear that he is the most likely to attract Reagan Democrats — in an election where Republicans desperately need such support to hold the White House.
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