Rudy v. McCain v. Romney
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 25 May 2007 at 4:28 PM
updated Fri, 25 May 2007 at 6:44 PM
Yes, those are the big three. But not very much public polling at this point narrows down the choices as such — mostly voters are being asked to chose from a list of 10 or more candidates.
I've been arguing that a narrowing of the field helps Rudy Giuliani the most, given his status as the most-chosen second-choice candidate in polls — meaning, voters supporting other candidates will shift to Rudy when their favored third-tierer drops out.
Well, a CBS/NYT poll out today points toward my theory being correct...
In a poll question that lists just the Big Three, Mr. Giuliani (whose lead has been narrowing in broader polls) runs away with it: Mr. Giuliani 36%, John McCain 22%, Mitt Romney 15%, None/Other 21%, Unsure 6%.
Now, there's good news and bad news for Mr. Giuliani. The good news, well, see above. The bad news: They ran this poll previously, in April, and Mr. Giuliani has fallen 11 points since then. His lead over Mr. McCain has gone from 22 points to 14 points.
BUT ... this isn't good news for Mr. McCain. Mr. McCain has also fallen in the latest poll, by 3 points.
Who's gained?
Well, Mr. Romney has seen an uptick of 5 points. But the real candidate to keep an eye on is None/Other. He's up 8 points from 13%. While there's no way to know this for sure, I'm guessing None/Other is best known for his turn on 'Law & Order' as a home-spun Manhattan DA. I'm guessing he's not a libertarian isolationist.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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