Rudy's Race
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 11 May 2007 at 9:53 AM
updated Fri, 11 May 2007 at 9:57 AM
This morning, I take up the question of whether Rudy Giuliani can count on a February 5 strategy as a backup, should he suffer defeats in some of the early states.
I should make clear that I think Mr. Giuliani remains more than viable in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. At the same time, his campaign can't count on big victories in any of those states.
In truth, none of the Big Three can count on such victories. But Mr. Giuliani is the only one with major national support as a backup plan.
The February 5 super-primary could go very well for him. But it will depend on how the media and primary voters perceive the race. If the conventional wisdom stays in place that the early three states determine everything, he'll go down in flames. But there's no reason to accept that conventional wisdom, especially with an essentially national primary coming just a couple weeks after New Hampshire.
As for Mr. Giuliani's long-term viability as the national frontrunner, I'd return to three points: 1) Even after two awful months, Mr. Giuliani is still up on John McCain by almost 10 points (see our index), 2) Also, after these rough months, Mr. Giuliani remains the top second choice of Republican primary voters — meaning he can pick up a lot of support as second and third tier candidates drop out, and 3) While abortion looms large in the public imagination, only 7% of Republicans name it as their most important issue — beating it out are Iraq (31%), the War on Terror (17%), immigration (12%), the economy (12%), and foreign policy (8%).
What Mr. Giuliani is doing is unique, but there's no way he could win the nomination that wouldn't be unique. Just because something's unprecedented doesn't mean it won't happen. There are a lot of kinks the Giuliani campaign needs to work out, but focusing on February 5 is very good strategy.
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