The Latest Politics Indices: With Thompson (Unofficially)
by Ryan Sager
Thu, 10 May 2007 at 3:11 PM
updated Thu, 10 May 2007 at 3:15 PM
You can see our most recently updated Latest Politics Indices on the left, or by clicking here. We still don't (officially) include Fred Thompson because he is not (officially) a candidate. But, below the fold, you can see what the GOP Primary Index would look like with him in the race.
The most striking thing, off the bat, is that Mr. Thompson is the only candidate on the Republican side right now with any upward momentum.
Mr. Thompson popped on the radar in March with just a bit under 10% support in our Index (which averages all the national polls by month). In April, he got just above 10%. Now he's coming up on 13% support. His old friend, John McCain, is in his sights; Mitt Romney is in his dust.
You've got to assume an official announcement would move some people into Camp Fred right away, even if they might drift back to other candidates eventually.
As for the other candidates:
* John McCain: He may have skidded to a stop in his slide in the polls. But I'm not sure that counts as a resurgence. A lot of Republicans just don't want to vote for the guy. They may eventually come around (see: Dole, Bob), but they won't be enthusiastic.
* Mitt Romney: Still anemic in the national polls. Actually down slightly (so far) this month. Early primary states, where he's spent big money, have shown movement. But conservatives remain quite wary on account of the flip-flop problem. He needs to do major work introducing himself to the country, as opposed to his better-known rivals.
* Rudy Giuliani: His slide continues so far this month, but he still has close to a 10-point lead over his next closest competitor. I've given my thoughts previously as to why I remain convinced of his frontrunner status.
The objection may be raised that this gives too much attention to the national picture as opposed to the early primary states. I think the February 5 Super Duper Tuesday primary makes the national picture far more important this year than in past years — but that's an argument to take up in a longer form at a later date.
For now, here's that chart with Mr. Thompson included. It can only bring smiles in Fredville:
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