Why Aren't the Republicans Doomed?
by Ryan Sager
Wed, 2 May 2007 at 5:52 PM
updated Wed, 2 May 2007 at 5:56 PM
That's the question asked by the Pew Research Center today in a Web memo. And, really, it's an excellent question.
The Republican president's approval ratings are in the tank, party identification has shifted significantly toward the Democratic Party, opinion on the Iraq war is unfavorable to the party that owns it, and the American people are more comfortable than ever with the welfare state in opposition to which the Republican Party once rose to power.
So, why isn't the GOP doomed?
The short answer, as provided by Pew's Andrew Kohut, is this:
[T]he crucial personal dimension in a period of national discontent, is whether the candidate is seen as an agent of change. And at this early stage in the game, the Republican front runners might just fill that bill. A recent Pew survey found that most voters make a big distinction between both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani and President Bush. Both candidates are seen as less conservative than Bush, and much closer to the average voter's own political beliefs.
This is confirmed by the fact that Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have similar appeal to independents as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Of course, this "centrist" appeal is also supposed to be a liability to Messrs. Giuliani and McCain in the primaries. Except for the fact that it hasn't been so far. Mr. Giuliani still holds a considerable lead nationally. And the only "true-conservative" and "religious-right" candidate in the race, Mitt Romney, has gone nowhere fast.
Republican primary voters, it seems, are being rather pragmatic so far. We'll see if that keeps up.
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