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Fred Thompsin is No. 2, Part II

by Ryan Sager
Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 4:14 PM
updated Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 4:18 PM

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Is Fred Thompson No. 2? Well, now we have the second poll released just today that says "yes."

After the jump, we reproduce a memo just sent out by McLaughlin & Associates (now-confirmed pollsters for the Thompson campaign — though this poll was not done for the campaign). It breaks down as follows (change since the last time the poll was taken in April in parentheses):

Rudy Giuliani: 24% (-4)
Fred Thompson: 18% (+5)
John McCain: 17% (+1)
Mitt Romney: 7% (-1)

UPDATE: A survey just released by Pew also shows Mr. Thompson second to Mr. Giuliani in how many voters say there's a "good chance" or "some chance" that they'd vote for either candidate — Messrs. Giuliani and Thompson are actually tied on the "good chance" number. More below...

Here's the full McLaughlin memo (download here as a Word document):

MEMORANDUM

To: McLaughlin & Associates National Omnibus Poll Subscribers
From: John McLaughlin/Jim McLaughlin
Date: June 5, 2007
Re: National Omnibus Poll – Republican Presidential Primary Results
--------------------
Major Findings:

Since our last national poll conducted in April for Citizens United, there has been significant movement among likely Republican voters on the Presidential primary ballot. Fred Thompson's support has risen five points from 13% to 18%, while Giuliani's support has decreased by 4 points from 28% to 24%. Support for McCain (16%/17%), Romney (8%/7%) and Gingrich (6%/5%) remains consistent with the April results.

Republican Presidential Primary Ballot

	4/15/07	6/3/07	Net
Rudy Giuliani	28%	24%	-4%
Fred Thompson	13%	18%	+5%
John McCain	16%	17%	+1%
Mitt Romney	8%	7%	-1%
Newt Gingrich	6%	5%	-1%
Sam Brownback	1%	1%	0%
Duncan Hunter	0%	1%	+1%
Mike Huckabee	1%	1%	0%
Tom Tancredo	0%	1%	+1%
Ron Paul	2%	0%	-2%
Jim Gilmore	1%	0%	-1%
Tommy Thompson	3%	0%	-3%
Undecided	19%	26%	+7%

Among moderate Republicans, Thompson's support has increased by 14 points (4% to 18%), while Giuliani's support has decreased significantly (37% to 29%). McCain (19% to 16%) and Romney (8% to 3%) have also lost support among moderate Republicans. Giuliani shows a slight loss among conservative Republicans (25% to 22%), while Thompson (16% to 18%), McCain (14% to 16%) and Romney (8% to 10%) show slight gains.

Republican Presidential Primary Ballot – Moderate Republicans vs. Conservative Republicans

	Moderate Republicans			Conservative Republicans
	4/15/07	6/3/07		4/15/07	6/3/07
Rudy Giuliani	37%	29%		25%	22%
Fred Thompson	4%	18%		16%	18%
John McCain	19%	16%		14%	16%
Mitt Romney	8%	3%		8%	10%
Newt Gingrich	3%	2%		7%	7%
Sam Brownback	0%	0%		1%	2%
Duncan Hunter	0%	0%		0%	1%
Mike Huckabee	0%	1%		2%	1%
Tom Tancredo	0%	1%		0%	1%
Ron Paul	1%	0%		2%	0%
Jim Gilmore	1%	0%		0%	0%
Tommy Thompson	0%	0%		5%	0%
Undecided	25%	29%		18%	23%

Methodology:

McLaughlin & Associates conducted a national survey of 1,000 likely general election voters between May 28th and June 1st, 2007. Within this sample, 350 voters were Republicans. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Respondents were randomly selected within predetermined election units structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a national election. The survey of 1,000 likely general election voters has an accuracy of + 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. For the subsample of 350 Republicans, the accuracy is +5.2% at a 95% confidence interval.

One would have expected Mr. Thompson's support to have come out of Mr. Giuliani's numbers with conservative Republicans — but the memo above makes clear that conservatives have hardly changed their preferences at all. This makes me suspect that Mr. Thompson's support is fairly soft with this group of voters that has swung. His message so far has been aimed squarely at a conservative audience, meaning that these moderates are reacting more to his celebrity and personality than to his positions on the issues. That doesn't mean these voters won't stick with him; God knows voters aren't rational. But it does mean I wouldn't put much stock in them in a long primary campaign.

Now, as to the Pew survey, as mentioned above, Messrs. Rudy and Fred are tied when it comes to voters who say there is a "good chance" they will vote for either candidate, as Pew lays out in this chart:

Mr. Giuliani is ahead, however, when it comes to folks who say there's either a "good chance" or "some chance," as demonstrated in this table:

Now, these "good chance" and "some chance" numbers could hardly be softer. But they're a modestly useful tool to gauge a candidate's potential support.

So, I'll draw the modest conclusion that Mr. Giuliani's potential support has dipped slightly, while Mr. Thompson still has ample room to define himself (only 58% have even heard of him).

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has had ample time to define himself, and it's not going so well. Some 72% of Republicans and Republican leaners now know who Mr. Romney is (compared to 46% back in April), and it's earned him the highest "no chance" number this side of Newt Gingrich.

Lastly, I'll note that the Pew poll shows Mr. Thompson as the leading candidate in the "good chance" category when you look just at conservatives. Among conservatives, Mr. Thompson takes 43%, Mr. Giuliani takes 36%, Mr. Romney 28%, and Mr. McCain 20%.

The race remains fluid, and Fred Thompson's the guy who just did a cannonball from the high diving board.

As they say, developing...

Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis

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