Giuliani Strategy Memo
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 22 Jun 2007 at 5:36 PM
updated Fri, 22 Jun 2007 at 5:38 PM
The Giuliani campaign has put out another one of its periodic strategy memos, from strategy director Brent Seaborn.
The bullet points:
* "We have seen a 4th candidate [Fred Thompson] enter the 'top-tier' of the Republican primary race."
* "We will continue to see a tightening of the race over the summer."
* "It will be interesting to see if 4 candidates can stay in the top tier over the course of the summer or if support for one or two [read: McCain and Romney] begins to drop."
Some more thoughts and the full memo after the jump...
Aside from the discussion of Mr. Giuliani's general strength, one might pay special attention to this almost off-hand remark: "Florida may prove to be the most important primary of this election."
You can say that again. So I will: Florida may prove to be the most important primary of this election.
It may seem early to say this, but it's coming into focus that — despite all the hullabaloo surrounding the remaining primary process — this may well already be a two-man race: Mr. Giuliani versus Mr. Thompson. At least, that's how the Giuliani and Thompson campaigns see it.
The primary schedule this time around is practically rigged to give Mr. Giuliani a chance at the nomination — Iowa and New Hampshire are de-emphasized by the existence of the February 5 super-primary, where states like New York, New Jersey, and California will dominate. If not for this primary calendar, I dare say Mr. Giuliani couldn't even run. But with this primary calendar, he's the man to beat.
And beating him could come down to Florida. After IA, NH, and (maybe, depending on the primary date) South Carolina, Mr. Giuliani will be looking for a big win. Florida's moved up its primary to January 29 — after the small states and before February 5 — so that's where the Giuliani campaign expects to get its boost. He's been leading heartily in the state. But one man is now challenging that lead: Fred.
If Fred takes Florida, Rudy's entire February 5 strategy comes into question. And if Mr. Thompson can then go on to dominate the South — well, it's all over.
So, watch Florida... It's where Rudy and Fred's eyes are turned.
******************
TO: TEAM RUDY
FROM: BRENT SEABORN, STRATEGY DIRECTOR
RE: STATE OF THE RACE
DATE: JUNE 22, 2007
----------
Mayor Giuliani remains well positioned to win the GOP Presidential nomination as we enter the summer phase of the campaign. We have built a strong organization, done well in the first three debates and maintain a durable lead in the polls. And we have seen a 4th candidate enter the "top-tier" of the Republican primary race.
MAYOR GIULIANI REMAINS FRONTRUNNER IN NATIONAL POLLING
Mayor Giuliani continues to lead the polls; in fact, Mayor Giuliani has lead 81 of 84 national polls conducted this year. Three recent major, national polls show Mayor Giuliani with double digit leads over his nearest opponent; a recent USA Today/Gallup Poll1 and an ABC News/Washington Post Poll2 have Mayor Giuliani receiving 32% of the vote among likely Republican primary voters, and both show a 13-point lead for the Mayor. A recent Quinnipiac3 national survey finds Mayor Giuliani leading the GOP Primary Field with 27% support and enjoying a 12-point advantage over his closest opponents.
Because we now have four players, I suspect that we will continue to see a tightening of the race over the summer. It will be interesting to see if 4 candidates can stay in the top tier over the course of the summer or if support for one or two begins to drop.
MAYOR GIULIANI'S RECORD OF LEADERSHIP IS ESTABLISHED IN THE MINDS OF VOTERS
The ABC News/Washington Post Poll offers some insight as to why the Mayor maintains a lead in public opinion polling.
55% of Republican primary voters say Rudy Giuliani is the strongest leader in the race - that is a 29-point lead over his nearest opponent.
53% say he has the best chance of being elected President in 2008 - a 31-point lead over his nearest opponent.
59% would trust him to handle a major crisis - a 36-point lead over his nearest opponent.
Mayor Giuliani leads on other key attributes as well - he is the "most inspiring" and "best understands the problems of people like you".
Presidential primaries are about electing a leader, and no candidate is a better leader than Rudy Giuliani.
In addition to his leadership, a plurality of Republican primary voters says that Rudy Giuliani "is closest to you on the issues" (Washington Post/ABC Poll). A recent Quinnipiac Poll reports that 55% of Republican primary voters cite the Mayor's record or his positions on issues as the reason they support him, and 35% cite the way he handled 9/11. Mayor Giuliani's support is based on a broad and deep understanding of his record and optimistic vision for America.
PRIMARY AND CAUCUS CALENDAR SUPPORTS MAYOR GIULIANI
The primary calendar continues to change in a way that favors our campaign. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina still hold their traditionally critical position in the nomination process. Additionally, Nevada, Wyoming, Maine and Florida have added themselves to the pre-February 5th races. We are confident the Mayor is strongly positioned in the early states. Despite millions of dollars having been spent on TV by other campaigns, the Mayor is still competitive in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Florida is a critical state in the Pre-Feb. 5 primary lineup. We are optimistic about the Mayor's potential for success in Florida as he has been the frontrunner in nearly all polls conducted in the state and enjoy a considerable lead. Florida may prove to be the most important primary of this election.
Another important development - New Jersey has moved its primary to February 5th and has just recently agreed to make it a "winner-take-all" primary.
MAYOR GIULIANI IS THE MOST ELECTABLE IN 2008
Mayor Giuliani is the only Republican candidate who consistently beats presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Mayor Giuliani leads Senator Clinton in 34 of 41 national polls. Furthermore, Mayor Giuliani is the only Republican candidate in this race that can expand the general election playing field on to Democratic turf - states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, California, Washington, Oregon and Pennsylvania. By expanding the playing field to this extent we will force the Democrats to play on defense rather than on offense in our territory.
MAYOR GIULIANI HAS AN AGGRESSIVE AND CLEAR MESSAGE
Recently in New Hampshire, Mayor Giuliani outlined his agenda for this campaign. He introduced his Twelve Commitments to the American people and set forth a positive, proactive plan for his campaign. He is focused on the future and has presented a bold agenda for changing how things are done in this country.
The Twelve Commitments:
I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us.
I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders and identify every non-citizen in our nation.
I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.
I will cut taxes and reform the tax code.
I will impose accountability on Washington.
I will lead America towards energy independence.
I will give Americans more control over, and access to, healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions.
I will increase adoptions, decrease abortions, and protect the quality of life for our children.
I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges.
I will ensure that every community in America is prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
I will provide access to a quality education to every child in America by giving real school choice to parents.
I will expand America's involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world.
Since announcing his Twelve Commitments, Rudy Giuliani has established himself as the candidate of ideas in this campaign and has been driving the focus among Republican candidates in this race.
As the summer progresses, the Mayor will take time to present the details on each one of his Twelve Commitments. This week in Iowa, the Mayor outlined his plan to restore fiscal discipline to Washington and fight the culture of spending.
We will use the summer to further define Mayor Giuliani and his vision for America. We know Republican primary voters hold a very positive view of the Mayor - voters are predisposed to absorb positive information about the Mayor and support him. As voters have the opportunity to learn about the Mayor's Twelve Commitments, we will have provided them with ample cause to vote for Mayor Giuliani and solidify support.
As the Mayor continues his dialogue with American voters, it will become clear that besides being a strong supporter of staying on offense in the terrorists' war on us and the most effective leader in the field, Mayor Giuliani is the real fiscal conservative in this race.
Conclusion
While the race has tightened and our campaign has been challenged, we continue to lead in public opinion polling and we are now a better defined campaign than when this race began in February. Americans hold a clear view of Mayor Giuliani. As our supporters better understand Mayor Giuliani, their support for him strengthens and intensifies. Through the summer the Mayor will continue to drive his message, define himself and set the agenda for this campaign.
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1USA Today/Gallup Poll - Conducted 6/1/07-6/3/07
2ABC News/Washington Post Poll - Conducted 5/29/07-6/1/07
3Quinnipiac Poll - Conducted 6/5/07-6/11/07
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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