McCain Follows Rudy Out of Iowa Straw Poll
by Ryan Sager
Wed, 6 Jun 2007 at 4:59 PM
updated Wed, 6 Jun 2007 at 5:01 PM
Explicitly following Rudy Giuliani's lead, John McCain will skip the Iowa straw poll in August.
The press release from the campaign, and analysis, is below...
From the McCain campaign:
ARLINGTON, VA - Terry Nelson, Campaign Manager for John McCain 2008 issued the following statement:
"John McCain has built a solid grassroots organization in Iowa and intends to win the state's caucuses. He appreciates the unique and critical role the caucuses play in the nomination process and enjoys traveling the state, meeting Iowans, and holding town hall meetings.
"In light of today's news, it is clear that the Ames Straw Poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational abilities, so we have decided to forego our participation in the event."
DES MOINES, IA - Dave Roederer, Iowa Chairman for John McCain 2008 issued the following statement:
"This weekend, Senator McCain will hold his 20th town hall meeting in our state. His straight talk on the challenging issues facing our country continues to resonate with Iowans and we are confident that his commitment to restraining government spending, protecting traditional values, and defeating Islamic extremists will ultimately lead him to victory in the caucuses."
Despite speculation that John McCain and Mitt Romney would battle it out on August 11, with Rudy out of the running, now ... not so much.
The question now is does Mitt Romney stay in? His victory would be pretty much meaningless without Messrs. Giuliani and McCain even competing (Fred Thompson isn't expected to sign up either). And a loss, though highly unlikely if it's just him versus the third-tier, would be the end of his campaign. Still, a solid victory would be nice to have — and he's got the money to burn buying it.
Speaking of money, this was surely a central factor in Mr. McCain's decision. He had an awful first-quarter fundraising haul. The price tag to compete in Iowa runs in the millions. With Mr. Giuliani in the race, he had a chance to beat the former mayor and current frontrunner. Without him, the upside and downside changed significantly. The upside is smaller — he could beat Mr. Romney (though, probably not, versus Mr. Romney's money and improving polling in the state). Or he could lose and spend a lot of money doing so.
I guess, ultimately, it was something of a no-brainer.
Related Topics: GOP Primary
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