Mr. No. 2
by Ryan Sager
Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 9:20 AM
updated Tue, 5 Jun 2007 at 9:27 AM
This morning, I thought I'd give a roundup of some of the polls coming in that point to a new shape of the race: Fred Thompson may well be No. 2.
First up today is Rasmussen, which shows Rudy Giuliani down slightly and Mr. Thompson showing a strong second (John McCain, by the way, is in fourth):
Giuliani: 23% (-2)
Thompson: 17% (+5)
Romney: 15% (-1)
McCain: 14% (-1)
Previously, there was the Insider Advantage survey (taken 5/30-5/31), which showed the race as follows:
Giuliani: 28%
Thompson: 19%
Romney: 17%
McCain: 16%
Then there were the two Public Policy Polling robo polls mentioned yesterday, which put Mr. Thompson in the lead in South Carolina and in second in Iowa (behind Mitt Romney).
[I also have reliable word that another major national poll will soon show Mr. Thompson in second place.]
Lastly, it's worth looking at some of the favorability numbers from that Rasmussen poll:
Giuliani is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans and unfavorably by 15%. For McCain, the numbers are 63% favorable, 32% unfavorable. In his home state of Arizona, McCain is currently viewed favorably by just 47% of all voters.
Thompson and Romney have much lower name recognition than Giuliani and McCain. Thompson is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by just 14%. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Romney while 28% hold an unfavorable view.
In short:
* Mr. Giuliani still has remarkable fav/unfav ratings among Republicans, especially given the beating he withstood from roughly March-May as regards his position on abortion and other social issues. The former New York City mayor may or may not win the nomination (I'd still call him the odds-on favorite), but it's clear by now that he could win the nomination despite his much-discussed social liberalism.
* Mr. McCain still has remarkably high unfav ratings among Republicans. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The base hates this guy.
* Mr. Romney also has remarkably high unfav ratings — especially given his low name recognition. Almost as many conservatives have an unfavorable impression of Mr. Romney as have one of Mr. McCain, and they've been hating Mr. McCain since 2000.
* Mr. Thompson starts the race with Mr. Giuliani's low unfav ratings, but nowhere near Mr. Giuliani's fav ratings. He still has a lot to prove to rise above the crowd.
While it's surely part of an entering-the-race bump, Mr. Thompson is accumulating a decent claim on the title of Mr. No. 2.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention this Survey USA poll which shows Mr. Thompson surging 10 points in California, to tie Mr. McCain for second place in that state. It's too big of a surge to be 100% credible, but it clearly reflects some degree of underlying reality. (Both Messrs. McCain and Thompson remain 7 points behind Mr. Giuliani.)
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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