Q-Poll: Fred Thompson Nearly Triples Percentage in FL
by Ryan Sager
Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 7:27 AM
updated Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 7:36 AM
According to the latest Q-poll, released just this morning, Fred Thompson has surged among Florida Republicans on the news that he's officially "testing the waters" for a presidential run.
Since the poll was last taken in April, Mr. Thompson has nearly tripled his percentage among registered Republicans to 14% from 5%, putting him in second place.
This is, surely, still a distant second to Rudy Giuliani, who continues to hold a commanding lead at 31%. However, Mr. Giuliani's lead over the field has shrunk, as it has nationally. In April, Mr. Giuliani was at 38%, putting him 23 points ahead of John McCain. Now, he's only 17 points ahead of Mr. Thompson.
While Florida isn't usually an important state until the general election (when it can cause problems), it is currently looking crucial to this year's Republican primary.
First off, the state has moved up its primary date to January 29, currently ahead of South Carolina — though South Carolina has vowed to leapfrog the Sunshine State and reclaim its status as No. 3 (after IA and NH, of course).
Second, it's of particular importance to Rudy Giuliani, who may not be able to claim victories in the traditional Big Three (Iowa is looking good for Mitt Romney, South Carolina is looking good for John McCain, New Hampshire's more chaotic), but who expects to come up big in the February 5 Mega Primary, when states such as New York, New Jersey, and California will be weighing in. Florida currently provides the Giuliani campaign a much-needed backstop against losses in the early small states and a springboard into the big states.
Third, the Thompson campaign gets this, and reportedly wants to target Florida.
Now it looks like they'll have fertile ground:
| |
April |
June |
% change |
| Giuliani |
38 |
31 |
-7 |
| Thompson |
5 |
14 |
+9 |
| McCain |
15 |
10 |
-5 |
| Romney |
7 |
8 |
+1 |
The thing to watch: how Mr. Thompson gets introduced to voters. According to Quinnipiac, 58% of voters say they have not yet heard enough about him to have an opinion. His favorable/unfavorable ratings are currently the best among any candidate in the race in Florida, 27%/12% among voters at large — 41%/3% among Republicans, 30%/12% among Independents.
His opponents have a ton of room to knock those numbers down.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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