Shocker Out of SC
by Ryan Sager
Mon, 18 Jun 2007 at 12:33 AM
updated Mon, 18 Jun 2007 at 12:39 AM
Once upon a time, John McCain was considered the "frontrunner" for the GOP nomination. Now, this was always a fraud, as Rudy Giuliani consistently beat the Arizona senator in the polls — even a year ago, when most people didn't believe he would run (I may have written about this).
Similarly, Mr. McCain used to be the frontrunner in the South Carolina primary. Well... not anymore.
The latest Mason-Dixon poll shows Mr. McCain down to an unbelievable 7% in the state's primary. This used to be Mr. McCain's best shot at winning one of the Early Three states; now he's below Mitt Romney (a place no candidate wants to be).
The Big Four breakdown looks like this:
Thompson: 25%
Giuliani: 21%
Romney: 11%
McCain: 7%
Now, partially, Mr. McCain's drop has to do with Fred Thompson's surge (which could stop surging). But it also has to do with the immigration bill. And it also has to do with the general stench of death emanating from the McCain campaign (when do you readers think he drops out? September? sooner?).
Meanwhile, Mr. Giuliani weathers the storm of Mr. Thompson's entry rather well. He's been hardest hit by a Fred entry in other polls, both national and state-level. Here, he seems relatively unaffected.
One last note: This poll highlights the regional nature of Mr. Thompson's appeal. He doesn't make nearly as big a splash up in New Hampshire. Mr. Thompson's is a southern candidacy, opening up the next chapter in the GOP's struggle with the South.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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