Two State Polls
by Ryan Sager
Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 11:25 AM
updated Thu, 7 Jun 2007 at 11:31 AM
Just a quick note to alert you all to two new state polls (I'm on the road today, so posting will be a tad light).
1) Keystone poll in PA (PDF): It has Rudy Giuliani and John McCain tied at 29%, but it doesn't include Fred Thompson. This is wildly out of line with every other poll that's been taken in the state, showing Mr. Giuliani leading by margins ranging from 10 point to 27 points (as you can see on this RCP PA page). I don't see immediately what's causing that, but it's something. (That's not to say Keystone might not be right and everyone else wrong ...)
2) PPP robo poll (PDF): It shows Fred Thompson way out ahead in North Carolina's Republican primary — at 37% versus Mr. Giuliani's 25% (John McCain and Mitt Romney bring up the rear at 14%).
Mr. Thompson had been at 25% in May, and Mr. Giuliani was at 37% — so, they essentially switched positions.
The crosstabs show a few interesting things about the Thompson v. Giuliani match-up:
* There's a gender gap: Mr. Thompson does much better with men (43%); Giuliani does better with women (27%).
* There's a race gap: Mr. Giuliani does better with blacks (take that, Al Sharpton!) (34%); Mr. Thompson does better with whites (37%). [UPDATE: Yes, of course this number is essentially meaningless... this is a Republican primary and a sample of just about 0 people.]
* There's a tremendous age gap: Mr. Giuliani does better with the young (39% among 18-29 year olds); Mr. Thompson does better with the old (45% among 46-60 year olds).
* The biggest gap, though, comes on issues: Not surprisingly, the "values" crowd prefers Mr. Thompson (36%-12%, or, 3-to-1); so does the anti-immigration crowd (49%-24%).
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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