Archives: Posts From July 2007
More Fred Thompson Questions
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 11:30 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: 1) Why don't Tennessee-based Thompson supporters — such as Rep. Zach Wamp, Senator Alexander, and Senator Corker — or their PACs turn up in Fred Thompson's first campaign filing?
Says Thompson campaign spokeswoman Linda Rozett: "The Friends of Fred ...
Thompson's Donors
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 5:40 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: I've been spending a little time going over Fred Thompson's first campaign filing. The interesting names so far, after the jump...Eugene Volokh — prominent UCLA law professor and libertarian blogger — donated $750
Kirby Wilbur — prominent conservative ...
Early States vs. February 5
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 2:45 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: This comes in via the comments, from Yoda:
"When polls show Romney ahead in the early states, you say they don't mean anything - it's February 5th that counts. Now when Rudy is ahead, it's meaningful?"
No. February 5 (and Florida on January 29) will ...
ARG: Giuliani Up in All Three Early States
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 1:36 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: American Research Group has a new set of polls on IA, NH, and SC. On the Republican side, one headline is clear: Rudy Giuliani is up in all three states. As is another: The bottom has fallen out of John McCain's support in New Hampshire and South ...
Political Video of the Day: Mitt Can't Win, Says Mitt-ite
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 12:29 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: In this clip, Mitt Romney's New Hampshire state co-chair, Donna Sytek, expresses serious misgivings about Mr. Romney's ability to win the general election: ...
New York Polling
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 31 Jul 2007 at 10:19 AM | Permalink
Excerpt: The Sienna College Poll out of New York today has some relatively unsurprising findings in the primaries:
GOP Giuliani: 40% McCain: 13% Thompson: 11% Gingrich: 9% Romney: 7%
Dem Clinton: 48% Obama: 14% Gore: 10% Edwards: 7% In the general election, ...
Fred's Fundraising
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 6:12 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: I may characterize Fred Thompson's $3 million haul for June as "not great." But let me qualify that in one important way:
* "Not great" doesn't = "very bad." $3 million is a decent number, on track roughly with how John McCain did each month of the last ...
Thompson's $3 Million Defense
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 5:27 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Below the fold is a memo sent out by Fred Thompson's online outreach guy, Jon Henke, responding to the news of Mr. Thompson's below-expectations $3 million fundraising haul for June...
Judging the rapid response:
The Politico story hit at 12:44 p.m. ...
Fred: The $3 Million Man
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 4:44 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: So, Fred Thompson's first month of fundraising is in — per Politico — and the results aren't great: $3 million plus. According to a Thompson email release, the non-campaign's burn rate is "below 20% - far below the other candidates." ("Other candidates"? ...
McCain Death Watch: Cruise Edition
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 4:35 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: From National Review, which is having its National Review cruise right now:
Informal NR Cruise 2008 Straw Poll [Rich Lowry] A very informal show of hands of a couple of hundred NR cruisers had Rudy in the lead pretty solidly, then Romney and Thompson ...
Humor and the Left
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 1:04 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: "The fact that 'The Simpsons' has gotten more liberal is in part a function of the times. Conservatives and/or Republicans have been in power for a very long time (particularly in the eyes of Hollywood types). And the show is of necessity going to poke ...
Judi, Judi, Judi...
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 12:59 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: ...Vanity Fair is gonna hit hard, according to this summary from Page Six: JUDITH Giuliani is an opportunistic, puppy-killing homewrecker who has a full-time hairstylist and needs an extra seat on planes for "Baby Louis," her Louis Vuitton handbag - at ...
Edwards: War on Tax Havens, Not on Terror
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 12:50 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: So, John Edwards has declared "war" on tax havens...
Remember, this is the guy who doesn't believe in the War on Terror.
Just saying. ...
McCain Death Watch: USA Today Edition
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 12:36 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: USA Today has some fun with the lede of their McCain story:
COLUMBIA, S.C. — No longer burdened by lots of campaign cash and staff, Sen. John McCain is stumping for votes the old-fashioned way, trying to remind voters of the maverick personality that ...
Thank God for the FEC
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 30 Jul 2007 at 12:05 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Thank God we have the FEC to protect us from political criminals like Jim Oberweis.
Mr. Oberweis, a social conservative and dairy farmer, has been fined $21,000 for appearing in a TV ad for his dairy farm in 2004. Why? Because it aired while he was ...
McCain's Book
By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 5:39 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: John McCain's latest book is available on Amazon: "Hard Call: Great Decisions and the Extraordinary People Who Made Them."
I found "Faith of My Fathers," his war memoir, gripping reading. Haven't checked out any of his other books. ...
GOP: Down the YouTubes
By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 4:30 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: The Republican presidential candidates could hardly do anything stupider than skipping the CNN YouTube debate after the Democrats stepped up to the plate earlier this week. Only John McCain and Ron Paul — brothers in desperation — have signed up so far. ...
Romney: 'a progressive-on-social-issues governor of Massachusetts'
By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 4:10 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: I've thus far declined to set up a Mitt Romney death watch for one very serious reason: I think he's already dead ... or, rather, was hardly ever alive. He has pumped millions of dollars into Iowa and New Hampshire to buy some inflated numbers. But those ...
'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch
By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 10:42 AM | Permalink
Excerpt: It's been a long time since we've had a "death watch" death watch item (where we put our McCain Death Watch on death watch due to positive news for John McCain). But the latest Diego/Hotline Poll seems as good an occasion as any.
The short version is ...
Eli Lake on Bloggingheads.tv
By Ryan Sager | Fri, 27 Jul 2007 at 10:28 AM | Permalink
Excerpt: Don't miss the Sun's Eli Lake on Bloggingheads.tv with conservative pundit David Frum.
They discuss: David vs. Robert Novak (08:21)
Inequality: Residue of the 70's (07:14)
How Bush could rally support for the war (06:47)
Did Reagan kill conservatism? ...
Fred Thompson: 'we're going to take that conversation to a different level'
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 4:48 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: I just received the following letter (available as a Web page here) in my inbox from Fred Thompson:
In the past few months, I've traveled the country talking and listening to folks. I've been discussing where I see America going, about what we need to ...
Fred Siegel: The Contentions Interview
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 3:10 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: This is an interview done by Commentary's blog, Contentions, with noted New York City historian Fred Siegel:
It's relevant to the 2008, inasmuch as it touches on Rudy Giuliani's record and that of Michael Bloomberg. There are a number of sections ...
McCain Death Watch: Death Cat Edition
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 2:43 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: You've heard of the cat, Oscar, that can predict when nursing home patients will die?
Well, he's been sighted at McCain headquarters. ...
Political Video of the Day: Fred and the Truthers
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 1:28 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Fred Thompson is heckled by 9/11-truthers: ...
Obama, Rudy, and Cabbies
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 12:20 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: May God strike me dead for citing an Ann Coulter column — but I'm actually citing it (really, truly) for an insightful point she's made, not for her normal, racist, faux-provocativeness (though, there's plenty of that in there, too).
I didn't get into ...
'Who's this?'
By Russell Berman | Thu, 26 Jul 2007 at 12:16 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: For Senator Obama, the "who" this morning was the man endorsing him for president.
Mr. Obama held a conference call with reporters this morning to announce the endorsement of a New Hampshire congressman, Rep. Paul Hodes. But at one point, the Illinois ...
McCain Death Watch: Media Team Edition
By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 7:16 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: According to the Wall Street Journal: Sen. John McCain's well-known media team has resigned, an indication that his campaign shake-up is continuing to backfire and imperiling the Arizona Republican's presidential candidacy.
Political ad-makers Russ ...
Women and the Draft
By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 5:31 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: A very biased source (one with half a dozen daughters) points this out to me, and it's probably worth notice: Why hasn't a bigger deal been made over Senators Clinton and Obama saying during the Democratic YouTube debate that women should have to ...
Thank God for All Our Campaign Finance Laws
By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 1:27 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Whomever you're supporting, don't donate to Californians for Obama. ...
More on Bloomberg
By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 12:54 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: I should add a quick explanation of why I think Mayor Bloomberg has a greater potential to hurt Republicans than to hurt Democrats in 2008. It's actually pretty simple:
Democrats are hyper-motivated and ready unite behind any candidate who wins the ...
Bloomberg: Not a Hometown Favorite
By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 12:29 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Don't start printing up the Bloomberg for President bumper stickers quite yet. A Quinnipiac poll out today finds that even in New York City — where voters know Mr. Bloomberg about as well as they could, and like Mr. Bloomberg about as well as they could ...
News Corp. to Turn Anti-Israel?
By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 12:23 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Don't miss Josh Gerstein today on James Murdoch (son of Rupert) and his apparent anti-Israel bias.
James, who currently heads News Corp.'s BSkyB satellite broadcasting division, is the heir apparent to the News Corp. empire when Rupert dies. Should this ...
Another Thompson Defection
By Ryan Sager | Wed, 25 Jul 2007 at 12:15 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: So, we have another defection from the Thompson campaign, this one by J.T. Mastranadi, who was hired a week and a half ago to do opposition research.
According to Marc Anbinder's report, Mr. Mastrandi was fed up with the lack of structure in the ...
New York Doesn't Like Fred Thompson
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 5:47 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: [Again, that's New York magazine, not New York City.]
So, about that Fred Thompson profile in New York magazine (link is here)...
While it's certainly not flattering, I don't think it's terribly damaging. It's not nice to Fred, and is even a little ...
Thompson Non-Campaign Shakeup
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 3:58 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Fred Thompson's campaign is, reportedly, having a shakeup before it's even officially launched. According to AP:
Republican presidential hopeful Fred Thompson is replacing his acting campaign manager with former senator and energy secretary Spencer ...
New York on Fred Thompson
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 3:29 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: That's New York the magazine, not New York the city. Don't miss its profile of Fred Thompson.
I'm still plowing my way through it (OK, it's not that long, but I'm in the middle). So, I'll be back with thoughts later.
A quick look at Thompson-friendly ...
Political Video of the Day: Biden on Gun Owners
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 1:12 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Joe Biden's awful answer on guns from last night's YouTube debate: ...
McCain Conference Call
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 24 Jul 2007 at 10:39 AM | Permalink
Excerpt: John McCain held a blogger conference call today — to my knowledge, the first since his campaign fell apart.
Like Soren Dayton, I missed the very beginning of the call. There wasn't much remarkable, but here were the highlights:
* Mr. McCain attacked ...
YouTube Debate Links
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 11:56 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: The YouTube debate questions are here.
Some responses here from CNN. ...
YouTube Debate Quick Afterthoughts
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 9:37 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: I came into the YouTube debate a skeptic (liveblog here). But, after watching it, I think it was the best Democratic debate so far. I was afraid it would be all questioners-personifying-their-questions (sick people on health care, immigrants on ...
The YouTube Debate
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 7:00 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: 7:01: First comment comes from... snippy effeminate guy with a silly goatee and a hat! This is ... promising.
7:04: First question comes from Zach something, who has a very grating speaking style. He also has a completely content-less question: Will you ...
Watch this space ...
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 4:57 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: For some YouTube debate blogging tonight, 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. It's the Democrats turn, of course, with the Republican set to give this format a go in September.
For now, Rudy Giuliani wants to set the agenda for the Dems. His press office just released ...
McCain Death Watch: Florida Edition
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 2:11 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Senator McCain's fortunes continue to tumble in the likely to be very important Florida primary, scheduled for January 29. Look at this numbers from the latest Quinnipiac Florida poll:
Giuliani: 30% Thompson: 18% McCain: 10% Romney: 9%
If you look at ...
McCain Death Watch: Back in Black
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 1:45 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: What a time to have left you all! ... especially McCain Death Watch fans.
Of course, in the time I was gone, the McCain Death Watch really got out of hand. It's now just called "the news."
Regardless, we'll keep watching. ...
Interior West: Patience, Grasshopper
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 1:38 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: The Denver Post laments that the interior West has yet to become a battleground in the 2008 election. As the originator of all this interior West talk, let me say a few short words in its defense...
It has nothing to do with the primaries. The interior ...
Gingrich to Bush: Shut Up on Iraq
By Russell Berman | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 12:48 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Newt Gingrich is offering President Bush some interesting advice about winning support for the Iraq war: The president, he says, should stop talking about it. "Simply be quiet, say nothing" is what the former Republican leader is urging. Mr. Bush instead ...
Edwards's Bonior on Anti-Clinton Kick
By Josh Gerstein | Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 12:08 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Looks like the anti-Clinton messages coming from aides to Senator Clinton's top rivals yesterday were no fluke. The Sun carried a story by yours truly this morning detecting a decidedly more negative tone towards the former first lady from the rival ...
Before Obama's Chum, There Were Hillary's T-Shirts
By Josh Gerstein | Tue, 17 Jul 2007 at 8:18 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: The New York Times reported today that Senator Obama of Illinois has counted as donations to his presidential campaign purchases of thousands of caps, keychains and similar items. "No other campaign is known to have listed paraphernalia sales as ...
Mrs. Edwards Vindicates Sun on Husband's Feminism
By Josh Gerstein | Tue, 17 Jul 2007 at 11:39 AM | Permalink
Excerpt: The Sun caused quite a stir back in March by reporting that a Democratic presidential candidate, John Edwards, might be aiming to go down in history as America's first woman president.
That story was based on comments from a longtime abortion-rights ...
Taking McCain's Pulse
By Josh Gerstein | Tue, 17 Jul 2007 at 2:09 AM | Permalink
Excerpt: Attending Senator McCain's campaign event in Silicon Valley yesterday, I felt a bit like a doctor approaching a sick patient. I wondered: is it just a bad cold, or a terminal illness?
I walked away feeling the patient is a bit sicker than he's letting ...
Hillary Joins Call for Private Equity Tax Hike
By Josh Gerstein | Fri, 13 Jul 2007 at 2:52 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: After a few more days of deliberation than was required by her leading rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, Senator Clinton has decided to join those calling for an end to a tax policy that allows some hedge and private equity fund ...
Gone Wedding
By Ryan Sager | Sat, 7 Jul 2007 at 2:45 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: As much as I'd like to engage the Paul-heads about what does and does not constitute a "serious" candidacy, I'm getting married this weekend. So, I bid you all farewell for the next two weeks. There will be so many polls and mini-scandals we won't get to ...
McCain Death Watch: Ron Paul Edition
By Ryan Sager | Fri, 6 Jul 2007 at 4:10 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Via Reason's David Weigel, we learn that John McCain is behind Ron Paul in the money race.
OK, not in money raised — but in cash on hand. Mr. McCain has $2 million. Mr. Paul has $2.4 million.
ABC also writes it up here. This puts Mr. Paul a distant, ...
Clinton Snubs Indian Tech Group
By Josh Gerstein | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 4:52 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Senator Clinton is going to telecommute to a major gathering of Indian-American engineers tomorrow, instead of showing up in person as advertised.
Mrs. Clinton was billed as a keynote speaker for the meeting of 4000 alumni of the Indian Institutes of ...
Dated Mitt, Married Fred
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 2:31 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Soren Dayton nails it in this post on Christian Right leaders getting ready to line up behind Fred Thompson — and not Mitt Romney.
The most significant data point is that James Dobson greenlit this attack on Mr. Romney (a radio segment titled: ...
NC: Giuliani and Thompson Tied
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 12:32 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: A new poll out of North Carolina has Rudy Giuliani tied with Fred Thompson in the GOP primary. Previous polls have had Mr. Giuliani in the lead — but they didn't include Mr. Thompson.
Civitas Institute poll conducted by Tel Opinion Research (R). June ...
Run on Thompson Watergate Memoir
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 12:14 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Over at Amazon.com, there seems to be a bit of a run on Fred Thompson's Watergate memoir, "At That Point in Time." The price for used copies (the only kind available) is more than $184.
Perhaps rival campaigns or reporters are hoping more stories like ...
Now THIS Is How You Win a War on Terror
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 11:54 AM | Permalink
Excerpt: Apologies for non-politics-related, mildly obscene item: HERO CABBIE: I KICKED BURNING TERRORIST SO HARD IN BALLS THAT I TORE A TENDON Too bad there's no YouTube. ...
Bloomberg the Spoiler
By Ryan Sager | Thu, 5 Jul 2007 at 10:34 AM | Permalink
Excerpt: According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Rudy Giuliani still leads in New Jersey — but a Mike Bloomberg independent candidacy would throw the state to a tie.
Yet more evidence that Mr. Bloomberg could serve as a spoiler for Republicans in 2008, not ...
Cash Chase: Rudy Takes the Lead
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 3 Jul 2007 at 3:36 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: The numbers are in, and Rudy Giuliani has taken the lead in the money race for 2008 on the GOP side:
McCain: $11 million Romney: $14 million Giuliani: $17 million
Mitt Romney loaned himself $6.5 million on top of his fundraising, putting him at $20.5 ...
McCain Death Watch: Public Financing Edition
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 3 Jul 2007 at 12:20 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: As I mention in my column this morning, if John McCain takes public matching funds in the primary, he'll be subject to very low state-by-state spending limits.
The full breakdown of those limits from the FEC is here. (These are estimates based on 2007 ...
ARG: IA, NH, SC
By Ryan Sager | Tue, 3 Jul 2007 at 12:15 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Here are ARG's most recent polls for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina:
Iowa:
Romney: 25% Giuliani: 18% Thompson: 14% McCain: 13%
New Hampshire:
Romney: 27% McCain: 21% Giuliani: 19% Thompson: 10 South Carolina:
McCain: 23% Giuliani: 22% ...
Bush Commutes Libby Sentence
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 6:55 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Our Josh Gerstein here.
UPDATE (8:01 p.m.): Rudy Giuliani responds on Libby: "After evaluating the facts, the President came to a reasonable decision and I believe the decision was correct." ...
McCain Death Watch: Transcript Edition
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 5:33 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: The McCain campaign has released the following transcript of the conference call earlier today:
ARLINGTON, VA - U.S. Senator John McCain's presidential campaign released the following transcript of today's press conference call regarding 2nd quarter ...
On a Less Morbid Note...
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 3:21 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: ... Dogs Against Romney.
The blog.
(For those just joining us... background here.) ...
McCain Death Watch: 'Sixth Sense' Edition
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 2:42 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Fresh off the McCain 2nd quarter fundraising conference call, here are a few thoughts:
* I may have to end this death watch soon. Why? Figure it out... It's not much of a mystery. (PS: Have you ever noticed how much McClane sounds like McCain?)
* The ...
McCain Watch: Watch This Space
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 1:28 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Watch this space, as we'll be coming to you live with the details of today's 2 p.m. McCain conference call, where we should find out his 2nd quarter fundraising total and hear a bit about these staff trims...
2:00: Pre-call, I hear: The campaign had a ...
'McCain Death Watch' Death Watch: Still in Second Edition
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 1:19 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Keeping with the McCain Monday theme here today, I wanted to throw out a couple of national polls from the last few days showing John McCain still in second place — or at least tied with Fred Thompson for the honor:
Fox:
Giuliani: 29% McCain: 17% ...
McCain Death Watch: Downsizing Edition
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 12:26 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: We'll see just how bad the fundraising situation is at 2:00. But, for now, we have a dispatch from the AP reporting a major McCain campaign downsizing:
John McCain's campaign, trailing top Republican rivals in money and polls, is undergoing a ...
McCain Death Watch: 2nd Quarter Anticipation Edition
By Ryan Sager | Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 12:17 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: John McCain's campaign is announcing his 2nd quarter results at 2:00: MEDIA ADVISORY
Senator McCain's Campaign To Announce 2nd Quarter Fundraising Numbers For Immediate Release Contact: Press Office Monday, July 2, 2007 703-XXX-XXXX
ARLINGTON, VA - U.S ...
Gollum for President
By Ryan Sager | Sun, 1 Jul 2007 at 1:55 PM | Permalink
Excerpt: Scott Adams provides some much-needed perspective on how to pick a presidential candidate. ...
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