McCain Death Watch: Florida Edition
by Ryan Sager
Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 2:11 PM
updated Mon, 23 Jul 2007 at 2:13 PM
Senator McCain's fortunes continue to tumble in the likely to be very important Florida primary, scheduled for January 29. Look at this numbers from the latest Quinnipiac Florida poll:
Giuliani: 30%
Thompson: 18%
McCain: 10%
Romney: 9%
If you look at the trend portion of Question 2, you can see Mr. McCain's steady slide from 23% to his current spot 13 points lower.
Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani has stayed steady from 29% in February to 30% now — despite more Republicans learning about his social positions and despite the entry of Fred Thompson into the race. One could argue he's fallen 8 points since March (when he was up to 38%), but I think that's a mistake, despite how often folks seem to be making it these days. It's not a surprise that Mr. Giuliani got a bump after his announcement and that it's now faded; it is a surprise (to some, though certainly not this analyst) that his appeal has remained so enduring.
Another thing quite worthy of note: Mr. Thompson's gender gap. Look at how he does in Question 2. 26% support with men, 11% support with women. Men are even a stronger category for him than white Evangelicals, who presumably make up his base; but he's very weak with women. Mr. Giuliani, on the other hand, does better with women than with men, though with nothing so lopsided as Mr. Thompson's gap. (I guess Giuliani Girl is onto something.)
Lastly: Casting yet more doubt on the theory that Mayor Bloomberg would be a spoiler for the Democrats, in this poll he throws a tight Giuliani-Clinton general-election race in the Sunshine State to Hillary.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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