McCain Death Watch: 'Sixth Sense' Edition
by Ryan Sager
Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 2:42 PM
updated Mon, 2 Jul 2007 at 2:46 PM
Fresh off the McCain 2nd quarter fundraising conference call, here are a few thoughts:
* I may have to end this death watch soon. Why? Figure it out... It's not much of a mystery. (PS: Have you ever noticed how much McClane sounds like McCain?)
* The whole thing was a brutal, brutal affair, with Mr. McCain's two top guys — Terry Nelson and John Weaver — sounding just about ready to slit their wrists.
* $11.2 million for the 2nd quarter isn't as bad as the worst predictions (I guessed low here). But that doesn't make it any less disastrous, especially when taken in the context of his $2 million cash on hand.
* 72,000 individual donors year-to-date (not just for the quarter) is also kind of pathetic for a candidate claiming to be a grassroots champion fighting the special interests. Barack Obama has 258,000 donors. Sure loser John Edwards has 100,000 donors. Hillary Clinton, the most thoroughly establishment candidate on either side of the 2008 field, had 60,000 donors just in the first quarter (she hasn't released the number yet for the second quarter).
* Last, but the opposite of least, Mr. McCain has now committed his campaign to an utterly wrongheaded strategy to win the nomination: the early-state strategy. The two top guys — frontrunner Rudy Giuliani and second placer Fred Thompson — see this race (correctly, in my view) as essentially a national primary, coming down to a showdown in Florida on January 29 and nationwide on February 5. Mr. McCain, meanwhile, wants to duke it out with fourth-placer Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire. He'll also be focusing on South Carolina, but that could be an easy win for Mr. Thompson. So, to recap: 1) We have Iowa, where Mr. McCain has dropped out of the straw poll and badly trails Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and maybe even Fred Thompson, 2) We have New Hampshire, where he's tied for second with Mr. Giuliani, behind Mr. Romney, 3) And we have South Carolina, where Mr. McCain used to lead — but now, because of Mr. Thompson's entry into the race and because of the immigration debate, Mr. McCain could be as low as fourth place.
Even if Mr. McCain eeked out a win in one of these states, he's utterly unprepared to run in Florida and on February 5. And the compressed primary schedule means there won't be much time to springboard an early win into big fundraising and national TV advertising.
Spread some butter on this guy ... he's toast.
Related Topics: GOP Primary
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