Gallup Takes Issue With Rove Analysis
by Ryan Sager
Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 3:16 PM
updated Wed, 22 Aug 2007 at 3:20 PM
Gallup today has issued a response to Karl Rove's public speculation that while Hillary Clinton may be the Democratic nominee, she is too "fatally flawed" in terms of public hostility toward her to be elected president:
Rove is correct in noting that Clinton's unfavorable ratings are high, and unusually so for a candidate this far ahead of the election. However, a review of historical Gallup data suggests that contrary to Rove's assertions, her current image ratings do not necessarily spell defeat. Clinton's current unfavorable ratings are in reality not much different from what other past candidates have had in the year they won the election. Second, her image has been more negative than positive several other times during the past 15 years, but often has recovered and could do so again. Last, despite Clinton's high unfavorables, she remains competitive with the Republican candidates in Gallup's presidential test elections.
Gallup goes on to make a number of points...
* "a number of candidates have had relatively high unfavorable ratings at some point in the election campaign but most managed to improve them at least somewhat by Election Day"
* "A review of Gallup poll data suggests that Hillary Clinton's current high unfavorable ratings are not unprecedented. Other candidates have had similarly high unfavorable ratings at various points in presidential election campaigns in previous years. Two of these candidates -- George W. Bush in 2004 and Bill Clinton in 1992 -- went on to win the election."
* "Typically, a winning presidential candidate's favorable rating is only slightly more positive than negative on the eve of the election. Clinton would only need to boost her positives a few points to achieve that position."
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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