Huckabee's Night in Ames
by Ryan Sager
Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 9:38 PM
updated Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 9:44 PM
After a long day and night of microanalysis of Ames, let me leave you this evening with a quick rundown on what I think it all means:
* The headline out of tonight is clearly Mike Huckabee's second-place finish, just 13.4 points behind Mitt Romney. Mr. Romney's financial and organizational advantage was staggering going into Ames — meaning, as I've discussed before, that his winning isn't much of a win. Mr. Romney met the minimum requirements for not disappointing (a margin of 10 points), but his margin had no "wow" factor.
* Therefore, to repeat the first point a bit, that means the media bounce out of tonight is likely to accrue to Mr. Huckabee. It was basically a battle between Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback as to who could score second place and a potential bump up to the first tier. Mr. Huckabee won that battle by less than 400 votes and less than 3 points. But those could turn out to be important numbers, despite their small size. If Brownback was going to make the leap it would have been here. This doesn't mean Mr. Huckabee is suddenly in the first tier, of course, just based on today. But he'll get another look.
* I significantly misunderestimated Iowans' tendency to punish those who don't play the Iowa game. This was a silly mistake on my part, given precedent: George H.W. Bush in 1987 and John McCain in 1999 (0.3%). Thus, the showings for Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson — barely breaking out of double digits — are essentially meaningless. (And, thus, one might say, so is the whole event. Though I would never, personally, say this.)
* What to make of the rest of the field? Tommy Thompson's gone. John Cox and Duncan Hunter were never in (and thus are still just as in as ever, I suppose). And Tom Tancredo will probably just keep doing what he's doing. As for Ron Paul's showing... It was higher than I expected (he came in fifth, I'd predicted seventh). He got about half as many votes as Mr. Huckabee. Yet, I still don't think it shows anything more than that his support adhered to the law of the straw poll: A vocal, organized minority can make a real showing. Nine percent is impressive, and it might give national Republicans something to think about. But it doesn't mean the scientific polls are wrong. And it doesn't mean Ron Paul mania is sweeping America, no matter how much his supporters wish it were so.
So, before I drive off into the Iowa night, I'll just predict we'll see some people drop out of the race in the next couple days (if not hours). It's hard to say which candidate(s) it will be, because all of their motives for running are so quirky. This will winnow the field in some ways. But it will also complicate the lives of the Big Four. Are they still the Big Four? Or are they about to become the Big Five?
Related Topics: GOP Primary
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