Interior West Watch: Hillary in the Centennial State
by Ryan Sager
Tue, 14 Aug 2007 at 4:51 PM
updated Tue, 14 Aug 2007 at 4:54 PM
Liz Mair points out an interesting poll out of Colorado, performed by Rasmussen. The poll runs some general-election scenarios, basically Hillary Clinton versus the Republican Big Four, and finds that everyone ends up in a statistical tie with Mrs. Clinton, except for Rudy Giuliani, who wins by 10 points, 50%-40%. (John McCain does second best, but he's only 3 points ahead, still within the margin of error; Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are almost precisely tied with Mrs. Clinton.)
Now, this is an automated poll in an individual state more than a year out from the general election. Still, it reminds me of an argument I once read...
As Liz notes:
Colorado has been trending blue when it comes to Governor, Senate, House, and State Legislature elections since at least 2004, and arguably, even as early as 2002. However, I do not believe that this is because the state has been becoming more liberal, per se, but rather that it's become less conservative and more libertarian-ish (which some may confuse for liberal, but is quite a different thing). Meanwhile, the Colorado Democratic party seems to have realized that by running socially moderate (as opposed to Nancy Pelosi-level liberal) Democrats, who like to spend a bit less money than their friends in Massachusetts, don't want to grab everyone's guns, and aren't tax happy nuts like, say, Charlie Rangel, they can win-- specifically because a lot of those who think libertarianish would rather vote for a party that is fiscally decent, and leaves people alone to be as gay or non-God-fearing as much as they want while owning as many guns as they want than they would vote for the party of, oh, say, Marilyn Musgrave.
A lot of Republicans haven't figured out yet that there is a big element of truth to the notion of the libertarian West. But if you look at the above poll results, evidently neither has the Democratic party on the national level when it comes to presidential nominees.
And, as I've argued elsewhere, Colorado is simply part of a broader trend of the interior West turning purple. A George W. Bush's party has become more in thrall to the Christian Right and more reckless in its spending policies, it has lost more and more ground in the region — as measured by lost senate seats (Colorado, Montana), lost House seats (two in Arizona and one in Colorado, just this last November), lost governorships (Arizona, Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado), and shrinking presidential margins.
A Republican presidential candidate will have to be able to hold onto a libertarian-ish demographic out West to win these states and the presidency. Mr. Giuliani, fiscally conservative and socially moderate, so far seems the most likely candidate to be able to pull it off. Mr. McCain, as mentioned above, may be in second place — but he certainly doesn't seem capable of winning the primary. That leaves Messrs. Thompson and Romney. Both men can claim — with some justification — that they're still relatively unknown in much of the country. Indeed, 17% and 14%, respectively, offered that they were "not sure" of their opinions of the two men in the Rasmussen survey; Messrs. Giuliani and McCain scored 3% and 5% on that measure.
So, can either Mr. Romney or Mr. Thompson craft a message and image to appeal to western voters? Despite Mr. Romney's Utah-based popularity, I don't see it. He talks a fiscally conservative game, but his religious-right pitch has been quite forceful (if, some suspect, entirely phony). Mr. Thompson strikes me as having the better chance — he draws a lot of social conservatives with his southern drawl and general affect, without having to pander to them. He strikes me as, along with Rudy, a candidate who can bridge the social conservative and live-and-let-live strains of the GOP without twisting himself into a pretzel.
The one blessing any Republican candidate may have out West, however, has a name: Hillary Clinton. As noted at the top of this post, even the weakest Republican candidates in Colorado tie Mrs. Clinton. That's because she's deeply unpopular in the region (not to mention nationwide). Barack Obama would likely run much better out West, especially in Colorado, where he's had some success fundraising. If the Democratic nomination turns away from Mrs. Clinton and toward Mr. Obama, this western question for the GOP would take on a new level of urgency.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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