Iowa: The Expectations Game
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 10 Aug 2007 at 2:36 PM
updated Fri, 10 Aug 2007 at 2:42 PM
In my column this morning, I gave a roundup of what we can and cannot expect from the Ames Straw Poll tomorrow (can: some candidates will be knocked out / cannot: who's most likely to win the GOP primary).
Well, today the expectations game continues...
The Giuliani campaign, which scored a strategic masterstroke with its decision to stay away from Ames (making any Romney victory essentially meaningless), steps on its toes a bit today by — as Jonathan Martin reports — sending around a memo arguing that Mitt Romney should win tomorrow's Straw Poll by a margin of 8-to-1. It's just a silly assertion. What's more, there was simply no reason for the Giuliani folks to insert themselves in the process. If your position is that the Straw Poll is worthless, shut up about it.
Meanwhile, Romney campaign spokesman Hugh Hewitt is trying desperately to lower expectations for his guy. "If Senator Brownback or Governor Huckabee don't topple Governor Romney at Ames, the pressure on them to bow out of the race will be huge, and the financial realities even larger," he writes. However, as Tom Bevan points out at the RCP Blog, a second- or third-place finish for either candidate would give him a new lease on life. Mr. Hewitt, meanwhile, says that when it comes to Mr. Romney, "A win is a win is a win, and the margin won't matter." Wrong again. Ten points seems to be the bear minimum Mr. Romney would need to meet expectations; and even much higher than that would hardly count as "exceeding expectations," given how much time and money the former governor has poured into his Iowa effort.
There's simply a much bigger downside potential in Iowa than upside for Mr. Romney. Aside from having a ton of money, I have yet to see one strategically smart move from the Romney folks. His Iowa strategy is just the latest in a series of less-than-inspired machinations.
Related Topics: GOP Primary
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