LP GOP Index: McCain's Fall, Fred's Rise
by Ryan Sager
Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 6:58 AM
updated Sat, 11 Aug 2007 at 6:51 AM
I've now got an updated index of the GOP national polls for July and a preliminary data point for August. You can see the graph below the fold, but in the meantime here are some of the interesting trends:
* Giuliani: His national numbers hit bottom in May, but have since stabilized — and are even trending up, back toward 30% support.
* McCain: The decline of the former "frontrunner" (who was never the frontrunner) continues unabated. He's gone from above 25% in November '06 to below 15% in August. Single digits seem possible by September.
* Thompson: In June, Mr. McCain and Fred Thompson crossed streams. In July, Mr. Thompson passed Mr. McCain to take second place in the GOP race. There's been talk in the last couple weeks of "cooling" enthusiasm for Mr. Thompson. That could eventually happen, but stabilizing around 20% before even entering the race looks like a pretty good position to be in. We'll see how Mr. Thompson's August data point moves as the month progresses.
* Romney: Mr. Romney keeps beating his head up against the elusive double-digit mark, but he has yet to break through. Will an Ames win — with the presumed media buzz it affords — do the trick? We'll see if he gets the win, and we'll see how it pans out for the rest of August.
And, so, without further ado, here's the updated Latest Politics National GOP Index:
Supporting tables (and the Democratic side) coming shortly.
Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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